Below are the commentaries we produced on Monday morning for the Ags contracts. The levels have stuck pretty well. Always good to see markets bahving well Technically, which is more than can be said for some markets right now!!
445.6 was the low back in mid August. After that we saw a rally to 508.2 by the end of that month, and September has been pretty much spent giving all of that back, although last Wednesday saw a “Bullish Engulfing Pattern” posted on the daily candle chart at the same time as holding that 445.6 support (the low last week was 448).
So the bulls once again have some faint glimmer of hope in the far distant to focus on, but it’s very faint!
Below 445.6 (which is the most likely direction of travel if we’re to get a move this week) we’re back in a wide “chop” zone seen between October 2008 and August 2010 between 300 and 450.
419 is about the only level we can find with enough conviction to give it the bold treatment. This is the 78.6% retrace of the September 2009 – August 2012 rally (from 302 to 849) on the continuation chart (unadjusted for roll).
Five green candles were posted on the daily candle chart last week (I’ve posted the Bar chart though, to give a better indication of the bigger picture) and in doing so the bulls saw off a number of challenges/resistance levels that have been weighing for a while now.
We ended the week hitting a high of 685.4 on Friday, the highest print since July, and now eye up a resistance area at 693-96 where we have the July high/failure, the 61.8% retrace of the losses since late April, and a gap from June.
662 and 675 are levels that show up as potential supports on the intra-day charts, and 668 is the broken Fibonacci level that could also act as support on any pullbacks.
We have a green SkewBar!
Major support at 1331-35 broke on September 20th and from here we suggested weakness could be seen to 1286 then 1272 or even 1256.6. Whilst being a tad disappointed by the reaction last week the market hasn’t retaken 1331, failing shy of here at 1328, a Marabuzo resistance, and is therefore still skewed in favour of the bears in the short term.
1305.2 was last weeks low so a move through here might trigger the move mentioned above.
If the bulls could retake 1327-31 look for 1380 then 1409.4.