FuturesTechs Blog

So goes January, so goes the year, is a phrase often circulated around the market as the big players and fund managers decide how they want to be positioned for the year ahead. January 2012 was an exceptional month distinguished by significant rallies in banking stocks, tightening of European bond spreads, and a resurgent Euro.

FuturesTechs Liam Roberts wrote a brief review of January highlighting noteworthy technical points across various assets and sectors. Click the link below to read the review.

futurestechs-january-review

For further information regarding our service or a free trial of our service please naviagte to the Contact us tab on our website.

2012 has started well for equity investors as January has seen gains across the board. A standout performer is the Dax which has gained 10.9% YTD as of the close on the 26^th January. Mainstream financial media would have you believe that the ESM, EFSF, ECB’s SMP, QE 1 and 2 (3? around the corner) and various other three letter acronyms (TLAs) created by the establishment have rescued capitalism and the financial system from sure disaster. Undoubtedly an exceptional amount of liquidity has been made available to financial markets and as a result asset classes have been boosted, but as a Technical Analyst there are signs that particular markets may be due for a pause.

Yesterdays blog post included the FTSE Index approaching a significant Fibonacci retracement and testing a trend resistance line as shown below (Click on the picture to enlarge it)

Today we highlight a similar situation in the DAX (Click on picture to enlarge it)

The chart shown is the Dax Future and highlights the recent rally approaching resistance. An old trend line which has proven both resistance and support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the July ’11 to September ’11 bear move are both being tested during this weeks price action.

The Dax has a particular relationship with the 61.8% retracement and often provides critical points of consolidation and often reversals. In September ’11 the Dax consolidated around the 61.8% retracement of the 2009 -2011 bull market and whilst the popular press and general consensus continued to call for lower prices the Technicals indicated a reversal was due, which I highlighted vehemently in our reports and in a special webcast. Another worrying sign is the lack of volume attributable to the gains seen so far this year suggesting the weight of ‘Real Money’ is unwilling to partake in higher prices, making them less sustainable.

So while the general consensus is for higher prices supported by unlimited liquidity from Central Banks worldwide, the Technical Outlook suggests the bigger picture Risk/Reward doesn’t favour the bulls.

Please navigate to the relevent buttons above to request a Free Trial of our reports, which cover all the major Equity Indices as well as Bonds, Commodities and Forex.

Liam Roberts MSTA

One of our services offered to clients is providing trade recommendations in UK equities. After taking a step back from the market last July – October when Risk Reward opportunities weren’t viable given the intraday volatility, our service has resumed and run consistently since December. Capitalising on the year end rally and move so far this year recent recommendations report solid returns. (For a spreadheet of our Trade Recs please contact us)

Our current outlook for the FTSE itself remains bullish in line with the recent trend higher although a lack of volume is worrying as we approach significant resistance as shown by the FTSE chart below.

As such, the Risk Reward for further upside in the FTSE isn’t particularly favourable so our recent recommendations have focused on short opportunities. Obviously such action is risky given the trend of the market which is why we’ve looked into stocks that have recently released fundamental news and reacted with a large increase in volume. Two such instances are Tullow Oil and Morrisons Supermarkets.

Tullow Oil has been trading within a broad sideways consolidation since September but continues to fail around 1470. After releasing an update the stock gapped lower to post an ‘Abandoned Baby’ candlestick reversal. Additionally a failure at the underside of a broken up trend line has provided an opportunity for a short trade running a stop above the recent gap lower.

Morrisons Supermarkets posted a massive reversal candle at the start of the year and hasn’t looked back since. After selling off significantly Morrisons lost further ground and gapped lower following comments from rival Tesco. A counter trend rally has returned to the 38.2% retracement and a break above short term swing highs at 298 was rejected yesterday to post a Bearish Engulfing Candle on good volume. Trade below yesterdays low begins to confirm the Bearish Engulfing candle providing an entry for a short trade whilst running a stop above the Gap.

Both these trades have been sent to our clients and although against the trend of the market their relative underperformance, fundamental news flow, and increased volume increases the probability of the trade. This is why stock selection is key.

Liam Roberts MSTA

Below is a sample of a note we sent to our “Premium” clients today; those clients who receive our Trade Recommendations service covering Individual UK Stocks. We’ve gone a bit quiet on this front of late as we await some clarity from the markets. In fact it’s been one of the most frustrating periods I can remember on this front! This frustration may show in what we put out. If you are trading or Broking CFDs on UK Equities and required Technical Analysis to aid your decisions or offer ideas please let us know (clikc the link below) and we’ll set you up with a Free Trial.

http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

So to today’s note:

If you’ve been wondering why we’ve been so quiet of late it’s because we’re doing lots of head scratching when looking at the charts right now. The Equity markets have been a very fraught hunting ground of late!

So with an apology for lack of recent recommendations here’s proof that we’re not just sitting around doing nothing: A list of every FTSE Stock with a line (sometime just a word!) to say what I’m seeing and why we’ve not got a conviction trade on!

AAL - Looks heavy, but is holding it’s 200 day MA (2950) and previous support in the low 29’s. Scope to 2490 if it breaks

ABF - Very rangy feel to the chart in the short term. Bigger picture suggest scope for weakness to 960 or even 920.

ADM - Hasn’t done anything since September

AGK -  Could be worth buying, looking for a hold above 1700

AMEC - Hasn’t done anything since November

ARM - Probably worth buying, but Reward/Risk isn’t right

ANTO - Looks bearish, but downside could be restricted to 1208

AU - Going sideways - No trade here

AV - Going sideways - No trade here

AZN - 200 day MA at 3095 might weigh. 3145 and 3175 also resistance

BAE - Been going sideways since October 2008!!

BARC - Breaking support at 277.50, but next support is 261, then 256, then 253. Too many supports below for a decent short risk/reward wise

BATS - Bullish, should hold 2645

BG - Broke support at 1400 last week but came roaring back. Gap above at 1498 is a worry for the bulls though.

BLND  - Slow, steady riser. Good one to hold, but buying at these levels?

BLT - Left an “Island Reversal” back in April, when we shorted it. Scratched the trade on the subsequent high. Doh!

etc etc!!

Dear All,

Despite being totally unfit and most definitely overweight, for some reason I’ve agree to do the Futures for Kids “Walk to Work” on May 20th. There are three choices of walk length; 35 miles, 20 miles and 10 miles. I’m going to do the big one.

I agreed to do this because I realised how many ridiculously generous and gorgeous people I’ve got to know throughout my career in Futures and the City (as well as my lovely friends and family, of course!), so DON’T LET ME DOWN. I’ve set a target of £3000, but feel you lot should be good for at least 5 Grand.

I have two major worries about the day:

1. Coming out in a rash, being south of the river for that length of time

2. Spending a day with Tony Foreman.

Wish me luck!

For any clients of FuturesTechs please note it takes all day to walk from Tonbridge Wells (and I don’t even live there!) to the City, so please note there might not be much in the way of reports that day!!

Donating through JustGiving is simple, fast and totally secure. Your details are safe with JustGiving - they’ll never sell them on or send unwanted emails. Once you donate, they’ll send your money directly to the charity and make sure Gift Aid is reclaimed on every eligible donation by a UK taxpayer. So it’s the most efficient way to donate - I raise more, whilst saving time and cutting costs for the charity.

So please dig deep and donate now.

http://www.justgiving.com/Clive-Lambert

Cheers,

Clive.

As the FTSE Futures near important resistance levels, the Year’s highs, we posted a comment this morning that started off in our normal level headed manner, then descended into something of a rant! Here it is for all to share!!!

“Today could be all about 5950. A hold above here keeps the bulls in the box seat and suggests we can head to 6030 then 6086.5″.

Stop there! Say no more. We held 5950. We bounced from a low of 5968 to hit the heady heights of 6033.5 by the day session close, getting up to 6039.5 in the after hours trade, and 6044 in today’s overnight trade.

So we are seeing off 6030 and now have our eyes trained upon 6086.5-87.5, the February high. This rally is on low volume. Back it while it lasts, but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t, and don’t come crying to me if it falls over, because I’ve been worrying about this and warning about it all the way. Houses built on sand don’t stay up for very long. Rant Over. Enjoy the Wedding!

As well as the FTSE FuturesTechs covers 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

Below is today’s sample of one of our reports, looking at Silver, which is “going parabolic” as we put it!

We cover 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

Further gains since we last wrote, and this is “going parabolic” now, it seems, adding solid percentage gains by the day. A month ago we were trading around $35, so have added near on 30% in that short space of time. This is no reason to go short. Selling something that’s going up is dangerous, bordering on stupid. Sure, it probably can’t go on, but for now there’s no signs of a reversal in sight. There is scope for this move to head to 47.580 in the short term as this is where the top line of the channel sits. The daily RSI is at it’s highest reading since April 2006, but as we said earlier in the week this isn’t a sell signal per se, a move back below 75 from here gives a sell signal…

I did a telephone interview on CNBC this morning, although they were somewhat rushed for time and I got 2 minutes! So anyway, if you have a spare 2 minutes I’ve posted it on our “Media” page: http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/media.html

Enjoy!

Please also note we have made some changes to our Forex service and now provide a Lunchtime update and whatever the big story of the day is in Forex land. Please feel free to click the links below to request a free trial.

Institutional Traders/Brokers/Fund Managers please click here.

Individual/Spread Bet traders please click here.

Cheers,

Clive.

Why not learn Technical Analysis from a whole host of experts (including FuturesTechs’ Clive Lambert) on a Society of Technical Analysts’ course?  In my opinion this is the best course on Technical Analysis that money can buy, because you learn from the country’s leading experts. There are two courses coming up. Below from the Society:

For the fifteenth year running, the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) is holding its annual Foundation and Diploma courses so that complete newcomers and experienced professionals can gain the STA Diploma, the internationally recognised qualification that is also equivalent to CFTe level 2, the International Federation of Technical Analysis accreditation.
For those of you interested in expanding your knowledge of Technical Analysis NOW is the time to sign up for the STA courses. The evening courses are run once a year at the London School of Economics starting with the Foundation Course on 3 November 2010 and the Diploma Course on 12 January 2011. The lecturers are leaders in their field and there is a written exam at the end of the Diploma Course. Passing the exam entitles you to use the prestigious MSTA designation and places you amongst an elite group of Technical Analysts in the UK.

For more information please see attached application forms or contact Katie Abberton on 020 7125 0038. Full information on the Society of Technical Analysts can be found on www.sta-uk.org

Foundation Course - 6 Wednesday evenings - 3rd November 2010 to 8th December 2010. Click here for details
Diploma Course - 11 Wednesday evenings - 12th January 2011 to 29th March 2011. Click here for details:

Here at Futures Techs we cover, on a daily basis, Brent Crude Oil, GasOil, NYMEX WTI (AKA Light Sweet Crude), Natural Gas and Carbon Emissions. Below is today’s comment and levels for Brent Crude, where we’ve seen a good move in recent sessions.

A bullish breakout on Wednesday was backed up beautifully by another strong session yesterday as we traded up from 80.41 to 82.40. In overnight trade we’ve extended these gains and have printed 83.01 as we write, getting above the next big resistance, the 82.94 high seen on August 4th.

So it’s all going rather well for the bulls and we’re now looking up to see where this can go next. The next big resistance dates back to early May and is the high/failure back then; 89.58.

That’s right. The next big resistance is 7 bucks away.  83.75 and 87.00 might try and have a say in the meantime.

Chart Levels

__________

R7  - 86.98

R6  - 86.28

R5  - 85.95

R4  - 85.00

R3  - 84.18

R2  - 83.75

R1  - 83.25

_____________

S1  - 82.94

S2  - 82.40

S3  - 82.11

S4  - 81.45

S5  - 81.13

S6  - 80.41

S7 -  80.00