Monday, 28th June

We said:

“The bigger picture clears things up a bit. On the line chart plotting daily closes we are shaping up to give a big “Head and Shoulder” sell signal if we saw a close below 4966… Hence we are siding with the bears, and looking for a test of these key supports below”

What happened:

We got the sixth red candle in a row with the market failing short of R1 (through not reaching 4966).

Tuesday, 29th June

We said:

“…it looks increasingly like we’re going to retest 4970, then 4883.5, then 4801… 4897.5 is “the big one” as far as the longer term skew is concerned.”

What happened:

The Futures closed at 4862.5

Wednesday, 30th June

We said:

“We think a break of 4897.5 (already done) and 4852.5 (not yet done) will trigger further selling, but we are tempering our targets to 4620, or at worst 4342.

What happened:

There was a low at 4811 and a close at 4814.

Thursday, 1st July

We said:

“Unless we get back above 4851.5 and 4897 a bit sharpish things could deteriorate very quickly, and we could be in for a couple of weeks dominated by bears”

What happened:

The market failed at 4858 and sold down to 4757.

Friday, 2nd July

We said:

….we’re still below the Neckline of our Head and Shoulders pattern, and unless today’s US employment numbers can craft us a close above 4850 we’re going to get a close that doesn’t look good from a chart point of view.”

What happened:

With the jobs data it spiked briefly up to a high at 4852.5. As of 14:45 the market is threatening to test this level again….

The Locals-turned-arcade traders traded The Bund, Bobl and Schatz spreads, as well as Euribor and Short Sterling Futures, again mostly spreads, so these were the first reports we wrote. Below is one our early reports from that era.

Bund Report from 2000 - Click here

In the early years I moved to Australia, then back to the UK, I had several stints with trading firms (alas day trading and writing analysis didn’t prove to be a good mix), and I wrote the reports from all manner of different locations. It wasn’t until 2007 that the business’s growth forced us to “grow up” and get our own premises.

By this time we were up to 4 staff, and writing around 25 pages of analysis per day. We were writing more and more reports,  covering Commodity markets in response to demand from a new swathe of traders leaving Futures Floors like the IPE. We then decided to “branch out” and build a website to offer the reports to a wider audience. We employed the services of Silkstream, a fellow Southend-based company, and they did a fine job, and we now have a growing band of Private Investors and Individual clients who find this to be an essential part of their daily trading routine.

We’ve been able to add lots of functionality to the website as we’ve gone along,  making it something that is constantly evolving; becoming better value for money by the day. We have recently posted our first Video on the Members Area, and this Blog continues to grow and grow, particularly with our “Tutorial” blogs that many have found useful when starting their journey in Technical Analysis.

2009 saw us add “Skew-Bars” to all of our reports, and this colour coding of the support and resistance levels has proved a real hit across the board.

2009 also saw our client base expand even further afield, offering trade recommendations to UK Equity traders, money managers and brokers.

We have recently added another layer to this product, also available within the members area, with our “Trade Signals” report, using our in depth knowledge of Technical Analysis to provide a daily list of things to watch that may be of interest.

Click here to see a sample page from this report.

If you’ve stumbled across us for the first time then why not request a trial of our service.

Professional clients: click here to see what we can offer you.

Private Investors/traders: click here for a website trial.

Here’s to the next 10 years!

Cheers,

Clive.

Over the last few weeks our viewing of the Technical Analysis charts has seen us increasing our bearish slant on the FTSE, mainly citing Financials and Miners as the sectors looking most vulnerable.

Last week we issued short trade recommendations in BHP Billition at 2125, Xstrata at 1198, Barclays at 365 and the FTSE Index at 5632.

Incidentally some of our best results in April were trades in the Finance Sectors, where we were long. We are not just banging one drum. We use Technical Analysis to tell us which way the market’s heading, and we issue our trades accordingly.

We’re still running the short trades mentioned above, as are many of our clients who follow our service. In situations where trades start to make good money we cover half the position, usually for a 5-8% profit, then run the balance by adjusting stops and targets, allowing Technical Analysis to manage trades for maximum profit potential.

Our daily reports have been increasingly warning of a pullback and our next target for the FTSE is 5340.

Why would you not want to access this invaluable, independent analysis?

The dinner was at the Sheraton Park Lane last Thursday, and I can assure you I almost fell off my chair when it was announced!

We were up against some strong competition including RBS and UBS, so it was good to see that a little firm from Southend can impress!!

I didn’t get the chance to do a speech, which was a good job really, so can I now publicly thank Graham and all the guys and girls here for all their hard work.

A nice way to celebrate our recent anniversary of 10 years in business!

To all of our customers we would like to thank you all for your continued support.

If you’re not a client and wish to have a trial of our analysis please click here register your interest.

Cheers,

Clive.

http://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/conferences/Awards10.htm

The Spread betting firms have simplified things over the years so you can trade something like the FTSE on a “rolling” basis; basically replicating the Index, or the “Cash” as it’s known in market parlance. So why do the Pro traders all trade the March, June, September or December Futures? What’s that all about?

By definition “Futures” are trade-able instruments that are priced depending on where the market thinks an instrument will be at some time in the future. The traditional set of expiry months for these sort of contracts has been March, June, September and December. You will find that Commodity markets are different. This is mainly to do with seasonal differences, so people can trade the crops that are about to be harvested or have just been harvested.  Saying that I’ve never understood the logic behind the Precious Metals expiry cycle so if anyone ever wants to enlighten me please feel free!

Anyway, as we write the March FTSE Futures are very close to expiring, getting to the end of their life. Futures traders who want to bet on or hedge future price movement therefore need to “move down the curve” and trade the June expiry, which is a bet on where the FTSE Index will be in mid June. The March contract is therefore “rolling off the board” and anyone who wants to keep their exposure to the market has to get out of the March position and move their interest into June. They are “rolling over” their position.

If you were to hold your Futures position into the expiry the exchange will demand that you do something to settle your contract. Many Financial Futures instruments are cash settled, so you just pay an amount of money, or (hopefully) receive an amount of money, depending on where you got in versus where the contract settled on the Expiry day. This is why there can be a big mash up in the minutes before the settlement of any contract. Futures exchanges have taken several measures over the years to calm the volatility at these times, as there have been lots of incidences of what could be described as market abuse during Futures expiries in the past.

So much so that the expiry days have taken on an almost mystical aura amongst market participants. The hour when everything expires has become known as the “Witching hour” and when you get expiry of more than one instrument it is called “Triple Witching” or even “Quadruple Witching”.

Triple Witching is when the Futures, Options, and the Single Stock Options all expire on the same day. It can cause havoc, but as I mentioned the exchanges have worked hard over the years to iron out any foibles thrown up, all in the name of keeping an orderly market. With the increased use of Single Stock Futures these can also be thrown into the equation to give you a “Quadruple Witching”.

Anyway I digress. Let’s get back to settlement of these instruments. As mentioned many contracts are “cash” settled, but some are settled with physical delivery. In Bond markets a holder of a Long Position in the Futures has to pay up the full price (forget margin at this point!!) to receive a lump of Bonds. In Commodity markets a holder of a short position in, say, Corn, would have to delivery a set number of bushells of Corn to a specified warehouse on a specified date in a certain condition. So speculators are usually pretty keen to “roll-over” their interest and not end up in this situation! I always remember working for a Broker on LIFFE and they were always very concerned on Expiry day that we didn’t have any errors that might result in having to physically delivery something they physically didn’t have!

So around mid morning on Friday if you see the markets wobble, pick up in volatility, or make a sudden unsuspected move, you now know why: Roll-over. The Witches at play!!! From this moment on the Futures traders are all looking at a new instrument; trading the June Futures, until the next roll-over.

We always suggest to our Spread Bet or CFD clients that they trade the market that tracks the Futures. for starters this is what we are analysing on a daily basis, so it is the truest reflection of what’s actually going on. Also the Futures are open (in the case of the FTSE) from 8am til 9pm every day, so you always have a “real” market price to reference off.

If you haven’t had a Free Trial of our reports before why don’t you try us out? We have been used by Professional traders for 10 years now, having first started writing our reports when the LIFFE Floor closed its doors in 2000. In fact FuturesTechs is celebrating it’s 10th birthday at the start of April.

Click here to request a free trial.

Date: March 17^th and 18^th 2010

Place: MWB Business Exchange, Houndsditch (City of London).

Details: Join Clive Lambert for a 2 day seminar introducing the basics of Technical Analysis, then delving deeper into three key methodologies used by traders every day.

This course is suitable for anyone from a new trader to an experienced market professional wishing to expand their knowledge on essential technical tools for short and medium term trading.

These practical modules on key trading methodologies may count towards 12 hours of your FSA CPD, based on them satisfying you training requirements*.

Clive Lambert has been a central figure in the UK Futures day trading arena for 10 years now, and has taught thousands of traders how to incorporate Technical Analysis into their daily routine. He is the Author of “Candlestick Charts” and is an accomplished and interesting speaker, who delivers seminars for many organisations including the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

March 17^th - 10am to 1pm - Module 1 - Introduction to Technical Analysis/Support and Resistance - £300 (+VAT)

• Clive will explain the basic principles and the main chart types before looking into the creation of support and resistance levels, and how to spot potential turning points using methods like trendlines and chart pattern recognition.

March 17^th - 2pm to 5pm - Module 2 - Candlestick Analysis - £300 (+VAT)

• After a run through of the history and construction of candlesticks Clive will go through the 7 most powerful patterns in candlestick analysis, sharing his unique insight into the “psychology” of each pattern, and their application on whatever timeframe chart you’re viewing. Clive is one of the UK’s leading proponents of Candlestick Analysis.

March 18^th - 10am to 1pm - Module 3 - Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators - £300 (+VAT)

• These studies are sometimes overused and often misunderstood. Clive will run through the common Indicators used in by different types of traders, the mistakes that are often made in their interpretation, and the correct way to utilise these studies to enhance your trading and understanding of price movement.

March 18^th - 2pm to 5pm - Module 4 - Market Profile - £300 (+VAT)

• Originally from the Futures Pits in Chicago this methodology is extremely tough to convey, as evidenced by the pile of difficult to read books on the subject. Clive breaks down the ideas behind Market Profile and tells first hand, in a practical way, how traders in London and Chicago use this in their daily trading. He has “grown up” around traders using Profile, so understands not only the complexities of this methodology, but its benefits to day traders.

Class sizes will be limited to 12 people, so you are guaranteed training that is both relevant and “personal”. All methodologies will be discussed using live charts of markets familiar to you.

Top notch Refreshments and Lunch will be provided, as well as course notes, either in bound, full colour “paper” format or on Memory Stick.

Delegates will also get a free signed copy of Clive’s book “Candlestick Charts”.
The course will take place at the MWB Business Exchange in Houndsditch (EC3, 5 minute walk from Liverpool Street); a fantastic modern space where delegates will enjoy excellent facilities.

Book now by clicking here or call us on +44 (0) 1702 333461.

Remember, places are limited.

Or take advantage of our generous discounts:

All four modules - £1000 (+VAT), or £800 (+VAT) for FuturesTechs customers**

FuturesTechs customers** can chose individual modules for £250 (+VAT).

If you wish to discuss block bookings for any of these Modules please let us know. I’m sure we can sort something out!!

Yours,

Clive

* Check with your compliance officer prior to booking

**Discount does not apply to FuturesTechs Website customers on month-to-month contracts.

The “funnymentalist” community, particularly Stateside, seem pretty happy with the idea that this pullback will be a “normal” affair and will pull back 10% from the January highs, at which point you can happily pile in, buy the dip, and carry on where we left off…

I thought it would be useful to know where this level is on the markets we watch. So here goes, and we’re looking at the Cash Indexes here, NOT the Futures:

Dow: High was 10730. 10% pullback level is 9657 (currently 10023)

S&P 500: High was 1150, pullback level is 1035 (at 1065 right now)

NASDAQ: High was 1897, pullback level is 1707 (1743 now)

DAX: 6094 was the January high, 10% off that is 5485.  BROKEN

FTSE: 5600 high, 5040 is 10% pullback. 5033 was last week’s low, so holding…

Eurostoxx: Pulled back from 3044. 10% back from here is 2740. BROKEN

CAC: high was 4088, so 10% back from there is 3680, BROKEN.

So to summarise,  if anyone stateside says to you about 10% pullbacks the simple thing to say is “thanks, but we’re already beyond that!”… especially if/when the FTSE breaks 5030-40.

Keep safe in these markets.