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Posts Tagged ‘risk-reward’

Dax Technical Analysis - The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement

Friday, January 27th, 2012

2012 has started well for equity investors as January has seen gains across the board. A standout performer is the Dax which has gained 10.9% YTD as of the close on the 26th January. Mainstream financial media would have you believe that the ESM, EFSF, ECB’s SMP, QE 1 and 2 (3? around the corner) and various other three letter acronyms (TLAs) created by the establishment have rescued capitalism and the financial system from sure disaster. Undoubtedly an exceptional amount of liquidity has been made available to financial markets and as a result asset classes have been boosted, but as a Technical Analyst there are signs that particular markets may be due for a pause.

 

Yesterdays blog post included the FTSE Index approaching a significant Fibonacci retracement and testing a trend resistance line as shown below (Click on the picture to enlarge it)

FTSE 100

 

Today we highlight a similar situation in the DAX (Click on picture to enlarge it)

Dax Future

 

The chart shown is the Dax Future and highlights the recent rally approaching resistance. An old trend line which has proven both resistance and support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the July ’11 to September ’11 bear move are both being tested during this weeks price action.

 

The Dax has a particular relationship with the 61.8% retracement and often provides critical points of consolidation and often reversals. In September ’11 the Dax consolidated around the 61.8% retracement of the 2009 -2011 bull market and whilst the popular press and general consensus continued to call for lower prices the Technicals indicated a reversal was due, which I highlighted vehemently in our reports and in a special webcast. Another worrying sign is the lack of volume attributable to the gains seen so far this year suggesting the weight of ‘Real Money’ is unwilling to partake in higher prices, making them less sustainable.

 

So while the general consensus is for higher prices supported by unlimited liquidity from Central Banks worldwide, the Technical Outlook suggests the bigger picture Risk/Reward doesn’t favour the bulls.

 

Please navigate to the relevent buttons above to request a Free Trial of our reports, which cover all the major Equity Indices as well as Bonds, Commodities and Forex.

 

Liam Roberts MSTA

A few tips for new traders

Monday, July 21st, 2008

We have had our web offering up and running for a few months now and we’ve been speaking with plenty of private traders of all different levels of experience. We have heard a few stories of people losing lots of money, and still not really feeling that they’re swimming above water.

Many of these people got signed up to training seminars that are advertised with lines like “make £50,000 a year for just 10 minutes work a day”. And there’s our first “tip”: Does that sound too good to be true? What do they say: “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!”. Come on! You’re intelligent people. Also if you see someone trading a “live” trading system, make sure it is live. And think about this: If I had a trading system that was whiz-bang nailed on money making and amazing, would I tell anyone about it?

Now consider this: There is a school of thought that 80% of traders who Spread Bet lose money. There is another school of thought that Spread Bet firms move the market to where your stop is and knock you out of trades. Are you sure? Most spread bet quotes are based on the underlying index. The spread bet firms’ highs and lows are matched to the underlying almost to the tick. So they’re not moving the market up and down to try and trigger your £2 stop. Please!

There are some very important disciplines you need to exercise before you start trading. Here are just a few that I can think of off the top of my head.

Start off small. Why give away all your money while you are learning to trade.

Understand and utilise Risk/Reward. Whenever you put a trade on make sure you’re aiming to make more money that you’re prepared to lose. If you always do this then you can lose as many time as you win, but you’ll still make money. If you try and make three times what you’re prepared to lose (known as a 3;1 Risk/Reward ratio) then you can have 7 losing trades out of 10 and STILL make money. Technical Analysis is the best tool for working out when you are putting on a trade with favourable Risk/Reward.

Never bat against a strong trend. Why do people feel the need to try and buy something that’s falling like a stone, or sell something because it’s really strong? This is one of the biggest mistakes new traders make. Don’t try and trade against a strong trend. We look for Candlestick patterns to suggest trend changes, then wait for confirmation. We saw a Hammer on the FTSE Futures chart last Wednesday, but it wasn’t until Friday that we started believing there was more upside to come. Even now we’re not getting too carried away, and have reasonable upside targets, because the Bears could wake up at any minute.

We are currently looking for the recent pullback in Oil to do a bit more. But we’ll soon change our minds if the positive candles start to appear, and the smart money will be made by getting long once this happens and riding it back to $147.

Find one thing to trade (at a time) and learn it’s personality. Different markets behave in different ways, and you may need to spend the early months discovering a market that suits you. You will all have different approaches to risk, volatility and the like. You will also have to skew the type of product you’re looking for towards how much time you can devote to it. I would suggest that something like the DAX Future or the S&P 500 would require a lot of attention, whereas something slightly less volatile may suit those who don’t have time to watch it’s every move. Yuo may need to try a few different things before you find something that appears to work for you.

Be well capitalised, and don’t risk it all on one trade. There is no point trying to turn £200 into £2000. You have a much better chance of turning £2000 into £20000. With £200 in your account you run a good chance of doing your dough in the first few trades. Many firms offer a dummy account or a “training account”. Good idea. Take advantage. Press buttons. Make mistakes. Then start risking your own money once you’ve got a few of these mistakes under your belt. Once you do start trading don’t risk all your capital on one trade. This isn’t the Casino where you get your pile of chips and stick it all on red because you fancy a Gin and Tonic. This is a business (well it could be if you take it seriously).

Manage your emotions. Trading can be an emotional business, and you need to make sure you can manage or control this, otherwise you will make decisions with your heart and not your head. Many professional traders spend lots of time making sure they’re in the right frame of mind to trade. A good way of doing this is by putting together a plan at the start of each day; collating your ideas. Then you have something to refer to. You can “keep it sensible” and not allow yourself to start making baseless emotionally-driven decisions.

This is just a few thoughts that may help you along the way. I’m sure future blog posts will expand on this theme as I think it’s extremely important.

I’ll sign off with one more thought, which kind of follows on from the previous point: Have a strategy. If you’re trading is based on “I bought it ‘cos I thought it was going up” then you shouldn’t be trading. Again this is where Technical Analysis can serve a trade so well. It gives then something to reference off in the decision making process. This is what Futurestechs does for many professional traders, and what we hope to become for many more of you; a useful reference point and a good building block towards a successful trading career.

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