FuturesTechs Blog

We have sent an extra report to our customers this morning, outlining the POTENTIAL sell signal that’s looming in the FTSE Futures. Here is the text and accompanying chart:

We have a potential “Head and Shoulders” pattern forming in the FTSE, although the sell signal has not been given yet.

The sell signal comes if we break the “Neckline” which is at 5851, and probably on a closing basis as well (although a “clean” break on high volume would convince me enough to take the signal “intra-day”).

The target, using the traditional measuring technique for this pattern, would be 5600.

Of course this also comes off the back of the recent failure at 6095, which was very similar to the February high/failure (6086.5). The “Double Top” sell signal from this situation would only be triggered on a move through 5584.5, so a long way off yet….

5851 is on the radar, however, so “Watch this space!”

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Here is a segment from today’s Brent Crude Technical Analysis report from FuturesTechs. We gave clients a preemptive “call” prior to last week’s sell off, and this morning’s price action, a failure at 118.37, could be the start of the next leg lower.

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Getting above 115.62 was good news for the bulls and we are now approaching a couple of big hurdles to the upside in the shape of 118.37 and 119.03. 118.37 is the 61.8% retrace of the move from the highs, and if this is the start of a bear move we really need to see the market fail here. 119.03 is the level that triggered a sell signal when it broke, and boy did we get a reaction when that happened last week!

Above these two there’s little to stop us from getting back up to the recent highs. However a failure at these levels followed by weakness through 116.15 gives the bears something to shout about once more.

Below is a sample of a note we sent to our “Premium” clients today; those clients who receive our Trade Recommendations service covering Individual UK Stocks. We’ve gone a bit quiet on this front of late as we await some clarity from the markets. In fact it’s been one of the most frustrating periods I can remember on this front! This frustration may show in what we put out. If you are trading or Broking CFDs on UK Equities and required Technical Analysis to aid your decisions or offer ideas please let us know (clikc the link below) and we’ll set you up with a Free Trial.

http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

So to today’s note:

If you’ve been wondering why we’ve been so quiet of late it’s because we’re doing lots of head scratching when looking at the charts right now. The Equity markets have been a very fraught hunting ground of late!

So with an apology for lack of recent recommendations here’s proof that we’re not just sitting around doing nothing: A list of every FTSE Stock with a line (sometime just a word!) to say what I’m seeing and why we’ve not got a conviction trade on!

AAL - Looks heavy, but is holding it’s 200 day MA (2950) and previous support in the low 29’s. Scope to 2490 if it breaks

ABF - Very rangy feel to the chart in the short term. Bigger picture suggest scope for weakness to 960 or even 920.

ADM - Hasn’t done anything since September

AGK -  Could be worth buying, looking for a hold above 1700

AMEC - Hasn’t done anything since November

ARM - Probably worth buying, but Reward/Risk isn’t right

ANTO - Looks bearish, but downside could be restricted to 1208

AU - Going sideways - No trade here

AV - Going sideways - No trade here

AZN - 200 day MA at 3095 might weigh. 3145 and 3175 also resistance

BAE - Been going sideways since October 2008!!

BARC - Breaking support at 277.50, but next support is 261, then 256, then 253. Too many supports below for a decent short risk/reward wise

BATS - Bullish, should hold 2645

BG - Broke support at 1400 last week but came roaring back. Gap above at 1498 is a worry for the bulls though.

BLND  - Slow, steady riser. Good one to hold, but buying at these levels?

BLT - Left an “Island Reversal” back in April, when we shorted it. Scratched the trade on the subsequent high. Doh!

etc etc!!

This is the hot topic of the moment, with massive moves seen in recent days. Clive appeared on CNBC on April 27th talking about the “Long Legged Doji” reversal that we’d seen on the 25th, and how this might be a “top in place” if we subsequently broke $41. You can check this out on our “Media” page here: http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/media.html

Below is today’s Commentary to our clients, which makes interesting reading:

From yesterday: “So we look good for further weakness in the short term targeting 37.565 next. We could even head back to 34.000, the 38.2% retrace of the rally since October 2008’s low of 8.40!!”

Erm…. Wow!!!

34.000 target hit, give or take the odd quarter of a dollar! What now?

Dip buyers should be buying NOW, looking for $34 to hold, as this is such a big Fibonacci level, but a safer trade would be to wait for a move back through 37.720 as this is our first bold resistance. Even then I would only “call” a move to 40.100, where the sellers could return.

Keep a tight stop on any long trades though, because below $34 we’d look for further liquidation similar to recent sessions, targeting 31.275 next, then 29.110.

Weekly Chart:

Things are getting interesting in the Oil markets, with signs of the market topping out. Our thoughts on the Brent contract are reproduced in this week’s Investors Chronicle, but there is something worth noting in the WTI as well, as per below, our commentary from this morning:

J Welles Wilder, one of the brightest minds in TA in my lifetime, and the guy who came up with indicators such as RSI, DMI and Parabolic SAR, suggests in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” (published in 1978, so not that “new”!) that you can get a definitive signal when Divergences occur, by following his “Failure Swing” methodology. RSI topped out (with a reading of 76) on April 8th, when the price chart topped out at 113.46. We have since made a new high for price with a 114.83 print on May 2nd.

RSI topped out at 67.70 on that day (a lower high on the Indicator, a higher high on the price chart, or a “Bearish Divergence” as technicians call it). The low (on the RSI reading) between these two highs was 53, on April 12th. We broke below here yesterday, which gives a “Top Failure Swing” sell signal. These signals are usually pretty timely and robust.

We also broke support at 109.95 yesterday, which moved us “into the red” as far as our SkewBar is concerned.

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This morning’s support and resistance levels in the Eurostoxx 50 Futures included 2957 as an important reference above and 2925 as our first support below. It is Midday now (in the UK) and the range has been 2926-2958. This is the kind of reliability our customers depend on us for.

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Today’s Comment and Chart for the Eurostoxx 50 Futures:

Stoxx opened towards Mondays low at 2940, tested higher at 2952 and then drifted to 2925 into midday. A rally into the cash close up to 2950 wasn’t sustained after hours, and the close at 2936 confirmed the previous days Bearish Engulfing candle.

Although there was an uptick in volume the confirming candle didn’t breach any support levels so we’re bearish, but somewhat  tentatively.

Marabuzo resistance remains at 2957. The 76.4% retracement of the February - March bear move remains at 2983.  Horizontal and Marabuzo support stands at 2918 and 2912 respectively.

FuturesTechs covers a number of contracts within the Energy complex; Brent Crude, GasOil, NYMEX WTI, Natural Gas, and Carbon Emissions.

As well as this our Commodity coverage includes Gold and Silver, plus Corn, Wheat and Soybeans.

Below is today’s Brent comment and chart. We also provide Support and Resistance levels, gleaned from our analysis of the charts, plus “Automated” levels from things like Pivot Points, Moving Averages, and Market Profile.

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Thursday’s high was 126.66. Shy of the 127.02 high from April 11th (looking at the continuation charts).

Friday’s high was 126.10, and yesterday’s high was 126.54, so we have some resistance to worry about all of a sudden.

We also have a potential reversal of the “Double Top” variety, but ONLY if we see a sell off through 119.03, which is our S7 support today, so is still a while away from becoming a reality.

I’ll keep it simple today. I was on CNBC last night, when I talked about Short Sterling, the Dollar Index, and Silver, and what the Candlestick Charts are showing us on those markets.

Please  Click here to go to our “Media” page to see the Video.

Happy long weekend to all. I love a good wedding!

As the FTSE Futures near important resistance levels, the Year’s highs, we posted a comment this morning that started off in our normal level headed manner, then descended into something of a rant! Here it is for all to share!!!

“Today could be all about 5950. A hold above here keeps the bulls in the box seat and suggests we can head to 6030 then 6086.5″.

Stop there! Say no more. We held 5950. We bounced from a low of 5968 to hit the heady heights of 6033.5 by the day session close, getting up to 6039.5 in the after hours trade, and 6044 in today’s overnight trade.

So we are seeing off 6030 and now have our eyes trained upon 6086.5-87.5, the February high. This rally is on low volume. Back it while it lasts, but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t, and don’t come crying to me if it falls over, because I’ve been worrying about this and warning about it all the way. Houses built on sand don’t stay up for very long. Rant Over. Enjoy the Wedding!

As well as the FTSE FuturesTechs covers 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

Last Thursday we highlighted Silver, which we described as being “on a tear”. We have since added 10% then given back 10%, rejecting a high just shy of the psychologically important 50 bucks mark. Here’s what we’ve put out to our clients today:

“This is no reason to go short. Selling something that’s going up is dangerous, bordering on stupid. Sure, it probably can’t go on, but for now there’s no signs of a reversal in sight”.

This line from last Thursday’s report seemed to create a bit of a stir and it looks like it was quoted on at least one newswire story. So what is a sign of a reversal?

A candle with a large range but a really small real body? Yes, that sort of thing Like yesterday’s? (A Long Legged Doji, to give it a name). Precisely….

Yesterday this one traded up to 49.820. In today’s overnight session we have traded over 10% off of this high. Interesting times. Where did we top out the last time around, when Bunker Hunt was buying all the Silver in sight? 50 bucks, give or take…

Channel support is 42.735. We would “call a top” if the market drops through here, especially if it happens quickly.

Here at FuturesTechs we cover 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/