By in commentary, technical analysis, trading

Technical Analysis – A bigger picture look at Bonds, Energy Markets, Equities, Forex and Crypto

Here at Futurestechs we write daily analysis across asset classes, but our reports always have a focus on the “bigger picture”. So let’s have a look at said bigger picture at what seems like an interesting time for many markets.

Bond markets have been in an uptrend for as long as I can remember, and I’ve been around a few years now! But if you look at a weekly chart for Bund futures there is only one trend since 2016, and that is SIDEWAYS! A few really big levels need breaking before this changes too. We saw weakness either side of the New Year but the buyers have returned at the bottom end of our sideways chop zone, and Friday saw a retest of the 200 day SMA, which has been a pretty good reference for the last 12 months. Will the sellers return now as they did in January?

With the US moving on rates quicker than its peers on this side of the pond T-Notes is a different looking chart and this chart said “a top is in” in January. We have noted a steadying of the ship in recent weeks but also have been highlighting a number of big levels above that would need to be retaken to change our bearish skew.

Our reports cover Futures on the entire European curve as well as Gilts, Short Sterling, T-Notes and Eurodollars. Some STIR markets look a little “overdone” to the downside according to some of the methods we employ.

Commodity markets have had a mixed start to 2018. Gold is stuck between 1300 and 1365 but if you take a step back the charts suggest there is scope for a good move higher if and when 1365-90 is taken out, so we’ve been looking for buying opportunities.

We have had a busy start to 2018 signing up clients for our Oil and Energy report. Our “white label” agreement with the broker GFI ended at the tail end of last year and we have had an excellent response from the Energy Sector, proving that our report was and is a valuable contribution to the sector’s daily routine!

During this time an uptrend line in Brent Crude has been keeping us bullish although we’ve had to be patient with this, as is often the case for this market. The charts are still suggesting (as they have since last July!) that we can head to $82, maybe even $91.50.

We cover Natural Gas markets (US, UK and Dutch TTF) as well, which have been “weathering” an interesting few months. I have once again been pleasantly surprised how these markets interact with bigger picture levels (and Fibonacci levels) on these spiky moves. We used to cover Carbon Emissions on a weekly basis but the overwhelming feedback we got from new clients/old readers was that we should give it more attention. So it’s now covered daily. Our trend following approach has served us extremely well in this one. In fact we’ve been consistently bullish since last July, in which time it has doubled! We are getting close to some important resistance levels that our clients have known about for months…

Equity Markets have started 2018 with something quite novel: Two way price action and volatility… While the key ethos of our methodology is to follow trends if there are signs of things topping we will flag this. Again things look quite different depending on which side of the Atlantic you sit. Or do they? “TOPS ARE VOLATILE” has been a theme of my analysis of late… We watch with interest. This coming week could be interesting with the roll-over out of the way.

In Forex markets big resistance around 1.25-1.26 in EURUSD has proved too much for the bulls for now. Cable is obviously an avid headline watcher which can mess up the charts at times, but once again there is a pretty clear “recovery” trend in this one and the charts are a good way of navigating “emotive” markets where maybe sometimes your own personal viewpoint might just be getting in the way! Another market that can be somewhat emotive (he said, making possibly the understatement of the year!) is Crypto-currenices. I have added a page to our website now to keep an eye on this space. In fact I did this about 2 weeks ago. All we’ve done since is sell off!

Our reports appeal to a wide range of market participants. We still have our solid original base of professional Prop traders, as well as brokers, funds, market makers and institutions. As mentioned we have seen the service embraced by the energy sector in recent months.

With MiFiD II “unbundling” regulations now starting to take effect this is a good opportunity to see if our totally independent and award winning offering is for you.