FuturesTechs Blog

In Brief: All I keep hearing at the moment is how we will have a 10% correction, so, let’s have a look:

The “funnymentalist” community, particularly Stateside, seem pretty happy with the idea that this pullback will be a “normal” affair and will pull back 10% from the January highs, at which point you can happily pile in, buy the dip, and carry on where we left off…

I thought it would be useful to know where this level is on the markets we watch. So here goes, and we’re looking at the Cash Indexes here, NOT the Futures:

Dow: High was 10730. 10% pullback level is 9657 (currently 10023)

S&P 500: High was 1150, pullback level is 1035 (at 1065 right now)

NASDAQ: High was 1897, pullback level is 1707 (1743 now)

DAX: 6094 was the January high, 10% off that is 5485.  BROKEN

FTSE: 5600 high, 5040 is 10% pullback. 5033 was last week’s low, so holding…

Eurostoxx: Pulled back from 3044. 10% back from here is 2740. BROKEN

CAC: high was 4088, so 10% back from there is 3680, BROKEN.

So to summarise,  if anyone stateside says to you about 10% pullbacks the simple thing to say is “thanks, but we’re already beyond that!”… especially if/when the FTSE breaks 5030-40.

Keep safe in these markets.

WHAT DO WE THINK NOW?

At FuturesTechs we analyse 28 different markets each day and give our trading clients regular up to date analysis on the current thinking and market’s state of mind. We look at Bonds, Forex, Commodities and Equities. At the moment Stock Markets are the most interesting, providing the biggest conundrum for traders and operators.

We believe that Fundamental analysis is flawed (by not taking into account sentimenrt), and that most Economists get it wrong. A far more sensible way to look at the markets is to work out what the trend is, and stick with the trend, then do your best to spot (as early as possible!) any changes in trend.

One thing we’ve learnt over the years is that the market usually tops out when most people are getting bullish, and dashing in to get long, afraid to miss out. In other words when people are getting greedy. This could definitely be applied to Gold at present, and probably also to Equities!

The opposite situation creates bottoms and emerged in March when Equities bottomed out  -

Fear gripped the market and everyone ran for the door. We didn’t. We took a step back, and realised that many in the market had given up, that there were plenty of doomsayers talking the FTSE down to 2500. Our analysts said at the time that the market was nearing a bottom. In fact we said it on CNBC, so if you don’t believe us click below link to have a look.

There is a saying that “Harry Hindsight is the best trader in the world”, and we would suggest that if anyone says “I got long back in March” ask them to prove it!

In recent weeks we have been concerned that this up move is coming to an end, and despite the fact there is usually a “Santa Claus rally” we are still erring on the side of worrying about downside risk. We really haven’t gone very far since September, if you take a step back and look at things.

I used a Warren Buffett line last week in one of our reports and it sums up quite well everything I’ve said above.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”.

He’s done quite well out of it!

We follow the trend, but are always looking out for when the market’s psychology gets to an extreme.

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Check out Clive Lambert’s March 4th CNBC appearance here.

The FTSE has been making some noises to the downside of late, finally coming to the party on our pullback skew.

Our regular readers will know that ever since we found resistance around 4500 over most of May we have been mooting the idea of a pullback. Will this take us back to or even through the March lows? You need to subscribe to FuturesTechs to have access to our views on questions like this. As a taster for those of you who, for some strange reason, don’t subscribe,  here’s today’s FTSE Futures commentary and chart.

To get this sort of thing every day you need to become a FuturesTechs member. We offer generous discounts for 6 or 12 month memberships. Click here to join up.

Clients are enjoying the extra levels we now provide on our levels sheets, which have padded out the offering for all asset classes; Commodities, leading UK Stocks, and Forex now enjoy extra coverage for FuturesTechs members.

Clive recently spoke at the SII “Risk Forum” on a pnel discussion on the outlook for the next 6-12 months. Again our clients had access to the slides for this presentation, giving bigger picture insight on the technical outlook for Equities, Commodities and Bonds.

Clive was recently asked to do an interview by Malcolm Prior, author of several best selling books on Spread Betting. Malcolm published this interview on his website, Spread Betting Central. Click here to read this.

We are also considering rolling out Twitter updates for FuturesTechs members so they can get updates on anything new, either in the markets, or on the website. Please let us know your thoughts on this by clicking here.