FuturesTechs Blog

Here is a segment from today’s Brent Crude Technical Analysis report from FuturesTechs. We gave clients a preemptive “call” prior to last week’s sell off, and this morning’s price action, a failure at 118.37, could be the start of the next leg lower.

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Getting above 115.62 was good news for the bulls and we are now approaching a couple of big hurdles to the upside in the shape of 118.37 and 119.03. 118.37 is the 61.8% retrace of the move from the highs, and if this is the start of a bear move we really need to see the market fail here. 119.03 is the level that triggered a sell signal when it broke, and boy did we get a reaction when that happened last week!

Above these two there’s little to stop us from getting back up to the recent highs. However a failure at these levels followed by weakness through 116.15 gives the bears something to shout about once more.

Things are getting interesting in the Oil markets, with signs of the market topping out. Our thoughts on the Brent contract are reproduced in this week’s Investors Chronicle, but there is something worth noting in the WTI as well, as per below, our commentary from this morning:

J Welles Wilder, one of the brightest minds in TA in my lifetime, and the guy who came up with indicators such as RSI, DMI and Parabolic SAR, suggests in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” (published in 1978, so not that “new”!) that you can get a definitive signal when Divergences occur, by following his “Failure Swing” methodology. RSI topped out (with a reading of 76) on April 8th, when the price chart topped out at 113.46. We have since made a new high for price with a 114.83 print on May 2nd.

RSI topped out at 67.70 on that day (a lower high on the Indicator, a higher high on the price chart, or a “Bearish Divergence” as technicians call it). The low (on the RSI reading) between these two highs was 53, on April 12th. We broke below here yesterday, which gives a “Top Failure Swing” sell signal. These signals are usually pretty timely and robust.

We also broke support at 109.95 yesterday, which moved us “into the red” as far as our SkewBar is concerned.

Please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/ to request a free trial of our service to see if it can aid your trading decisions.

FuturesTechs covers a number of contracts within the Energy complex; Brent Crude, GasOil, NYMEX WTI, Natural Gas, and Carbon Emissions.

As well as this our Commodity coverage includes Gold and Silver, plus Corn, Wheat and Soybeans.

Below is today’s Brent comment and chart. We also provide Support and Resistance levels, gleaned from our analysis of the charts, plus “Automated” levels from things like Pivot Points, Moving Averages, and Market Profile.

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Thursday’s high was 126.66. Shy of the 127.02 high from April 11th (looking at the continuation charts).

Friday’s high was 126.10, and yesterday’s high was 126.54, so we have some resistance to worry about all of a sudden.

We also have a potential reversal of the “Double Top” variety, but ONLY if we see a sell off through 119.03, which is our S7 support today, so is still a while away from becoming a reality.

One of the things we at FuturesTechs towers take very seriously is Marabuzo lines.

What are they? A large bodied candlestick on a Daily chart is the result of a big one way push over the course of a day. In the example of large red real bodies the market often wakes up the next day sure in the knowledge that yesterday’s bout of selling should be good enough to guarantee further losses today. But sometimes things feel a bit overdone and there can be a reaction higher the next day. The big question then is whether this is a short term gains that deserves to be sold into, or if the market is going to continue to rally and take back the losses of the previous day?

The Marabuzo line is the halfway point of the real body (ie halfway between the open and close) of any large bodied candlestick, and we’ve found them to be excellent reference levels in the days after this “big event” Candles.

This week’s ICE Brent Crude Oil Chart is no exception. Last Thursday we saw a big down day.

The Marabuzo line of this session’s Candlestick was 133.78.

The high last Friday was 133.69

The high on Monday was 133.57

The high on Tuesday was 133.75.

Close enough?!

Tuesday turned out to be a pretty Bearish day, as was Wednesday. The Marabuzo line of Wednesday’s big red candle was 127.36, and Thursday’s high/failure was 127.25. Close enough?!

Which prompted our Brent Comment today, as per below. You can click on the image to see it in full size.

All very interesting, I’m sure you’ll agree.

Have a good weekend, and be sure to subscribe to our members area so you don’t miss out on these sort of calls. Click here.

Come on Essex in the Twenty20 tomorrow! And a Happy Birthday to my old mate Mickey. How old?! OUCH!!!