FuturesTechs Blog

Our clients who trade Spread Bet and CFDs often seem rather perplexed around this time because the Futures are rolling over and all the talk is of “expiry”, “triple witching”, “quadruple witching”, “roll-over”, “new front month”, “rolling off the board”, “options expiry” and the like.

The Spread betting firms have simplified things over the years so you can trade something like the FTSE on a “rolling” basis; basically replicating the Index, or the “Cash” as it’s known in market parlance. So why do the Pro traders all trade the March, June, September or December Futures? What’s that all about?

By definition “Futures” are trade-able instruments that are priced depending on where the market thinks an instrument will be at some time in the future. The traditional set of expiry months for these sort of contracts has been March, June, September and December. You will find that Commodity markets are different. This is mainly to do with seasonal differences, so people can trade the crops that are about to be harvested or have just been harvested.  Saying that I’ve never understood the logic behind the Precious Metals expiry cycle so if anyone ever wants to enlighten me please feel free!

Anyway, as we write the March FTSE Futures are very close to expiring, getting to the end of their life. Futures traders who want to bet on or hedge future price movement therefore need to “move down the curve” and trade the June expiry, which is a bet on where the FTSE Index will be in mid June. The March contract is therefore “rolling off the board” and anyone who wants to keep their exposure to the market has to get out of the March position and move their interest into June. They are “rolling over” their position.

If you were to hold your Futures position into the expiry the exchange will demand that you do something to settle your contract. Many Financial Futures instruments are cash settled, so you just pay an amount of money, or (hopefully) receive an amount of money, depending on where you got in versus where the contract settled on the Expiry day. This is why there can be a big mash up in the minutes before the settlement of any contract. Futures exchanges have taken several measures over the years to calm the volatility at these times, as there have been lots of incidences of what could be described as market abuse during Futures expiries in the past.

So much so that the expiry days have taken on an almost mystical aura amongst market participants. The hour when everything expires has become known as the “Witching hour” and when you get expiry of more than one instrument it is called “Triple Witching” or even “Quadruple Witching”.

Triple Witching is when the Futures, Options, and the Single Stock Options all expire on the same day. It can cause havoc, but as I mentioned the exchanges have worked hard over the years to iron out any foibles thrown up, all in the name of keeping an orderly market. With the increased use of Single Stock Futures these can also be thrown into the equation to give you a “Quadruple Witching”.

Anyway I digress. Let’s get back to settlement of these instruments. As mentioned many contracts are “cash” settled, but some are settled with physical delivery. In Bond markets a holder of a Long Position in the Futures has to pay up the full price (forget margin at this point!!) to receive a lump of Bonds. In Commodity markets a holder of a short position in, say, Corn, would have to delivery a set number of bushells of Corn to a specified warehouse on a specified date in a certain condition. So speculators are usually pretty keen to “roll-over” their interest and not end up in this situation! I always remember working for a Broker on LIFFE and they were always very concerned on Expiry day that we didn’t have any errors that might result in having to physically delivery something they physically didn’t have!

So around mid morning on Friday if you see the markets wobble, pick up in volatility, or make a sudden unsuspected move, you now know why: Roll-over. The Witches at play!!! From this moment on the Futures traders are all looking at a new instrument; trading the June Futures, until the next roll-over.

We always suggest to our Spread Bet or CFD clients that they trade the market that tracks the Futures. for starters this is what we are analysing on a daily basis, so it is the truest reflection of what’s actually going on. Also the Futures are open (in the case of the FTSE) from 8am til 9pm every day, so you always have a “real” market price to reference off.

If you haven’t had a Free Trial of our reports before why don’t you try us out? We have been used by Professional traders for 10 years now, having first started writing our reports when the LIFFE Floor closed its doors in 2000. In fact FuturesTechs is celebrating it’s 10th birthday at the start of April.

Click here to request a free trial.

In Brief: All I keep hearing at the moment is how we will have a 10% correction, so, let’s have a look:

The “funnymentalist” community, particularly Stateside, seem pretty happy with the idea that this pullback will be a “normal” affair and will pull back 10% from the January highs, at which point you can happily pile in, buy the dip, and carry on where we left off…

I thought it would be useful to know where this level is on the markets we watch. So here goes, and we’re looking at the Cash Indexes here, NOT the Futures:

Dow: High was 10730. 10% pullback level is 9657 (currently 10023)

S&P 500: High was 1150, pullback level is 1035 (at 1065 right now)

NASDAQ: High was 1897, pullback level is 1707 (1743 now)

DAX: 6094 was the January high, 10% off that is 5485.  BROKEN

FTSE: 5600 high, 5040 is 10% pullback. 5033 was last week’s low, so holding…

Eurostoxx: Pulled back from 3044. 10% back from here is 2740. BROKEN

CAC: high was 4088, so 10% back from there is 3680, BROKEN.

So to summarise,  if anyone stateside says to you about 10% pullbacks the simple thing to say is “thanks, but we’re already beyond that!”… especially if/when the FTSE breaks 5030-40.

Keep safe in these markets.

Below are some “general thoughts” on the FTSE that I sent out to our “Pro” client base this morning:

I was sticking with the trend until yesterday, and looking for levels like 5400 in FTSE Futures and 1127 in the S&P Futures to hold firm. Alas they didn’t.

Obama changed all that.

At the same time as being bullish at the start of this year, I have mentioned to many of you that I’m looking for a pullback some time this year that will take us back to somewhere like 4750 or even 4250.

Is this it? Let’s look at the last two sell offs; the 23^rd October – 3^rd November move, and the 23^rd-27^th November sell off. The first of these shed 317 points on the Futures, the latter 299.

So far from high to low this time we’ve lost 314 points - very similar, suggesting we could be in dip buying territory.

We won’t need to wait long to find out, and for now I would be getting defensively positioned because the risk of a swift move is with the bears. In the coming sessions we will likely either grind higher (and the bear threat alert will lessen considerably once 5341 is retaken) or we will sell off through 5245 which will make this move bigger than anything we’ve seen so far, and therefore “the real deal”…

Last week’s big highlight was meant to be the US Employment Report. As it turned out all the action was before this, and the numbers were a bit of a damp squib (like the topical analogy there?).

Equity markets have caught a fresh bid, and we were early to catch this as there were several reversal patterns on major indices at the start of last week. We were bullish from Wednesday onwards, so have reaped some firm rewards on the back of that timely change of sides.

Most of our readers are short term traders so they benefit from these timely “calls”. Longer term traders and Investors may be on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity to get in, and coming out of a dip or retracement is an ideal opportunity. Often, as was the case last week, our charts can tell us nice and early if it’s likely that a pullback has come to an end.

We are now looking to see if resistance at 5300 in the FTSE Index will be seen off. If this  happens the next upside target is 5650, a failure high from last August.

Gold is on another big run at the moment and has traded up to a high of $1111 as of yesterday morning. Yesterday’s candlestick (A “Shooting Star”) gave a warning that things may be getting toppy at these levels but so far we haven’t seen any downside moves to confirm this, so we’re sticking to the idea of higher prices going forward, targeting $1192 next, then $1250.

Oil is stuck in a range for now. Brent Crude has traded between $75 and $80 for weeks now. We expect this range to get broken with a move higher, and we would then target $90 and beyond. We have been suggesting to our clients to buy the dips to $75, and whatever their timeframe this has worked out well. Longer term holders would never have been offside, whereas those who trade in and out should have been able to jump out at $78 to $80 on several occasions then buy again at £75 next time it comes off.

If you are uncertain of any of the terminology used or methodologies discussed in this report you could swot up on our website. Feel free to ask for a Free Trial by clicking here.

Yours,

The FuturesTechs Team

If you came to see us at the World Money Show the other week then this is the moment you’ve been waiting for!

We are pleased to announce the winner of our “Witch Way for the FTSE” competition is Lukhvinder Binning, who guessed at 5143. Well done Sir!

Special mention really should go to O Y Tsang who plumbed for 5142, you will receive a copy of Clive’s book along with 9 others who were there or there abouts. It could not have been closer, so well done to all of you, especially considering how bearish things were looking on the Friday afternoon of the show!

Winners will be contacted over the coming days as we need your address to send you your prize!

We hope you will all take advantage of the free trial of our service, and realise the benefit of using Technical Analysis like ours as part of your daily trading routine.

Have a good week.

Weekly Roundup, 19^th to 23^rd October.

Last week was a fairly mixed affair, particularly in Equity markets. The FTSE’s range for the week was 5166- 5299, and Friday saw the top end of this retested just before the US Markets opened, which triggered some afternoon selling. Quite often Friday afternoon sees traders tidying up positions that they’ve been holding all week, so if the market is long then you see selling on Friday afternoon as some of these longs are trimmed.

As far as individual stocks are concerned Miners and Resource stocks are still amongst the leaders, whereas Bank Stocks have been having a much tougher time. The “strong” banks like HSBC and Standard Bank are the safest bets for longs. We are seeing Utility Stocks finding support and starting to turn now and this is something that often happens at tops, with the real money moving into safe havens. We suggested buying United Utilities and Shire Pharma to our clients last week, which gives a clue as to our thinking. We are starting to short consumer related stocks as their charts are starting to agree that we are still in recession and things aren’t really improving.

The Dow has, as we suspected, shown a complete disregard for 10000, but we do seem to be having trouble getting through 10110-120, where we topped out each and every day last week. We are happy with our current “cautiously bullish” stance, and we continue to advise our clients not to get too excited about the prospects for higher prices.

Gold continues to go sideways, frustrating all of those who have piled in And got long because we got through $1000. We always thought $1034 was more important, and we’re happy to be long of this while this important technical level is holding firm.

In last week’s round up we talked about the change in skew we’ve been forced into in Oil. We had been favouring the bears but then we got above $75 to change our stance. Sure enough this has continued higher, and we want to see $78 holding now to give us a launch pad for a move to $90 and beyond.

Finally can I remind you it’s the World Money Show at the end of the week and we’re going to be exhibiting. We are running a competition to win an Apple iPod 3G, so if you can make it please come along and say hello.

Click here to register for free.

To request a free trial, with no obligation, of FuturesTechs’ daily analysis service please click here.

Have a good week,

The FuturesTechs Team.

Every week we send out a weekly round up e-mail to our database, and we figured it would probably be useful to post it here as well, so here goes!

FuturesTechs Weekly Round up - 19th October.

Here is your latest roundup of price movements on the major asset classes in the Investment arena. As regular readers will know by now we at FuturesTechs only look at the price action to determine what trend an instrument is in, and where this suggests it can head in the future. Many technicians use Cycle analysis to make longer term calls, and this is what allowed us to make the “call” that we were near a bottom back in March for Equity markets like the FTSE and DAX. Currently our analysis suggests there is a pullback imminent, but so far each time the market has threatened this sort of move the buyers have stepped back in and bought into the dips. There was some price action towards the tail end of last week that was slightly worrying, but once again the bulls appear to have averted the threat.

The Dow may be above 10000 as we write, but it’s failing to convince and we prefer maintaining a cautious stance for now. I heard a great line on the financial news channels last week. Someone said they were “at the party, but dancing near the door”. That sums up how we feel about the present state of things.

So we’d warn against getting too complacent about this recent rise, and we’d warn against worrying that you’ve missed the boat. Generally tops are formed when people pile in thinking they’ve got to get in because they’ll miss out otherwise!! If our analysis is right there will be a pullback soon, and it could even be a deep one, and just when people think we’re heading back to those March lows is just the time you want to be buying!

Gold has been front and centre on people’s minds of late, and the amount of mainstream press it’s been getting (all bullish) worries us, as far as whether this rally can sustain itself is concerned. BUT it has held above some important technical support levels like the $1027 to $1034 region, so we are happy to stay with the trend and back it to keep heading higher for now.

Oil has been the one that has surprised us. We weren’t expecting to see $75 again in a hurry but we’re above here at present, so now there’s scope for higher prices and we’ve been forced to readjust our thinking.

The Dollar’s weakness is the other big topic that many have had on their minds of late. We are keeping a particularly close eye on Dollar/Yen, actually, and want to see a move through 91.15 to take further pressure off the dollar.

Finally just a reminder that we are exhibiting at the World Money Show this year. It takes place at the QE2 Conference Centre in London (bang opposite Big Ben) on October 30^th and 31^st. Admission is free, so register and be sure to come along and say hello. Click here to register

If you wish to benefit from our analysis on a daily basis it is just £50 a month (+VAT). You can become a member by clicking here.

Have a good week,

The FuturesTechs Team.

With this article I will introduce Point and Figure charts: how to understand them, and how to recognise some simple patterns. My main source will be Jeremy du Plessis’ The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure, which you might be interested to purchase from the Global Investor Bookshop (in association with FuturesTechs).

Point and Figure is a very old method of charting price action, which originated when traders were simply recording the prices as they saw them happen: 14.50, 14.55, 14.60, 14.55, etc.

This gradually evolved to the point where traders were filling out boxes on a graph corresponding to price levels which the market had crossed, moving to the right each time that the price retraced over an old price level. Eventually, we got the modern Point and Figure chart.

Here’s the most recent NASDAQ chart:

As indicated, the X’s are drawn when the price has increased, while the O’s are drawn whenever the price has decreased.

In the example above the intervals used are just a point wide (the “box sixe”), meaning that we change from X to O (or O to X) and move to the next column whenever the price moves by just a point in the opposite direction to the previous move.

That makes this a very short-term chart, of course. With one-point reversals happening all the time, a couple of hours’ trading will quickly fill up the chart.

The two ways we can make it longer-term are:

• Increase the box size
• increase the reversal size

Increasing the box size should be obvious enough; instead of recording 1-point movements, we’ll record 10-point movements, for example. Here’s the first chart modified in this way:

These boxes stretch back a couple of weeks now, instead of a couple of hours.

Now let’s change the reversal size, the size of the reversal which needs to take place before we change between x’s and o’s and move into the next column. This is measured in terms of boxes, and is set to 3 in the below chart:

The above chart stretches back a couple of days. For a bigger picture view combining both changes, we could require 3-box reversals for 10-point boxes, i.e. requiring 30-points reversals before changing direction on the chart. The below chart represents the price action of a year:

One thing you might have noticed at this point is that we don’t really have a proper time axis. That’s true. While it’s true that time is progressing as we move from left to right on the chart, it’s not doing so on a constant basis. The chart only moves right when we get a sufficiently large change in direction (as defined by our parameters). The chart only changes when the price does. So, instead of being a traditional time vs. price chart, Point and Figure is instead an original way of drawing the price action.

We’re going to look at some patterns now, focusing on charts with 3-box reversal sizes. Any box reversal size can be used, and some care should generally be taken to choose the one that leads to the most favourable chart for the desired timeframe.

That said, we usually don’t like to use 1-box reversals. Charts look very different with 1-box reversals, being of a much shorter timeframe and with very different-looking patterns. Much of the difference is related to the fact that a 1-box reversal chart can have columns with just a single entry of , i.e. when we get two reversals in quick succession.

Check out the Difference between the CAC futures charts below. The top is a 10 x 1 (10 points, 1-box reversal) chart, while the bottom is 10 x 3.

Besides being of a much shorter timeframe in the same space, we can see that the one on the top does indeed have many columns with just a single X or O.

The advantage of sticking with reversal sizes of 2, 3 and more, is that we get to take advantage of the resulting asymmetric filter. The chart is biased to ignore movements in the opposite direction to the prevailing trend that do not satisfy the box size criterion. While a move of, say, 10 points in the prevailing trend will be charted, a move in the other direction won’t be plotted until it reached, say, 30 point.

So let’s have a look at some simple patterns.

The double-top buy is seen when the price reverses off a high, then comes back and breaks through it on the second attempt. It’s an awkward name since the Double Top bearish reversal pattern in mainstream bar/candlestick analysis, but the context is usually clear enough. Here’s an example of it in an uptrend:

Equally, the double-bottom sell occurs when we get the creation of a lower low:

These can be reversal or continuation patterns, depending on the previous trend. As continuation patterns, they tend to be a little more reliable (in accordance with the general principle that trends have a universal tendency to continue!)

In a similar vein to the above, we can have triple-top buy and triple-bottom sell signals. Indeed, we can have any number of tests before the breakout, with all manner of compound patterns.

The first of these buy signals comes after a failed attempt by the bulls to break through the previous highs (indeed, the correction causes a failed reversal triple-bottom sell signal. Our bias is to trade with the prevailing trend, so hopefully we would not have seized on that false signal):

In our next post on this topic, I’ll cover a selection of more advanced patterns and have a look at the price targets we can derive from them.

For now, this has been an introduction to Point and Figure charting. If you have any questions or comments, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. To subscribe to our daily technical analysis of the futures and FX markets, please sign up for a free trial.

Graham Neary MSTA (graham@futurestechs.co.uk)

Here is Clive’s latest appearance:

Clive has recently started a weekly slot on CNBC, where he’ll be explaining concepts in technical analysis and reviewing the current state of play in the markets. Tune in on Thursdays from around 6:30am, or check our archives.

Here is today’s appearance, discussing Marabuzo lines in the context of what’s been happening recently with the FTSE, S&P 500, Bund and Brent.