The last few days have seen some big swings either way in Equity markets.
“Where next?” I hear you ask! Our chief market analyst Clive Lambert was on CNBC last night trying to pick the bones out of this price action, looking at the S&P 500 Futures, FTSE Futures, and suggesting Fresnillo as a Stock to buy.
See it on our media page by clicking here.
This morning’s reports on Silver and the FTSE would have reaped dividends for our clients, for different reasons.
Here’s the text of the FTSE Futures report:
We have posted the “all sessions” chart today because it’s actually a bit cleaner, and also shows what we’ve seen overnight; selling.
Selling to the 200 day MA as well, this well watched proxy sitting at 5771.5 today.
Yesterday’s low was 5827 in day session trade so this is a bold resistance above, and if the bulls don’t quickly retake this mark we will likely break through 5771.5 and head to 5615.5 then 5584.
If the bulls can dust themselves down from this weak open and get us back through 5816 and 5827 we then need to retake 5869.5 then fill the gap to 5912.
My gut tells me this weak open is a buying opportunity. The chart tells me otherwise…
Nice “gut feeling”!
Our Silver commentary was a bit more “nailed on”, and since we sent it out first thing this morning in the UK it traded up to 37.330 (as we tuck into our lunch in the UK, awaiting the open in the US):
Lunchtime (in the UK!) Update: We now have day session gap support at 36.400, protected by the broken resistance at 37.020, the latter having done a job in the last hour or so “on the retest”.
To request a Free Trial of our Daily Technical Analysis Reports please click here.
Individual traders can have a look on our website on a trial basis by clicking here.
Last week we posted a Blog about the potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming in the FTSE Futures. Things got interesting with respect to this yesterday, which was the crux of our morning report, reproduced below.
The fact that we’re not breaking this line PROPERLY does suggest the market’s ambilvalence is set to continue.
Towards the European close yesterday we were selling off, and we’d got through 5858, the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern that we’ve been watching of late. So on the “Day only” chart that we prefer, as above, we have a slight closing break of this Neckline, and a sell signal.
Except we’re called 50 higher this morning and this will instantly tell us that the sell signal is a false one.
It looks like the market is happy in it’s current moribund range-bound confused stupor, and we’ve got to put up with this situation for a bit longer.
We’re not getting any firm signals at the moment, then, and this counts for the Individual stocks as well, making our (and your) job a rather tough one.
Trial for Professional Traders/Brokers and Fund Managers, click here.
Trial for Individual Traders/Spread Bet/CFDs traders, click here.
Below is the Comment and Chart from today’s FuturesTechs report. As well as this we provide Support and Resistance levels from our own analysis, as well as “Automated” levels referencing Market Profile, Pivot Points and Moving Averages.
If you would like a free trial of our daily technical analysis reports please click on one of the links below:
“Professional Trial”, for Traders, Fund Managers, Brokers etc click HERE.
“Website Membership” for Individual traders, suitable if you’re Spread Betting or trading CFDs click HERE.
From yesterday: “Backing either camp is proving difficult in this volatile environment so our Skew turns neutral’
Sideways consolidation at multi month highs remains the story, albeit in a volatile environment. The dip below the previous days low found buyers at 1328.75 who rallied the market up to 1348.75, the previous breakdown level, on good volume.
Yesterdays low validates an up trend line from the low on the 14th March. Today this trend line provides support at 1330.50. Yesterdays downside rejection in conjunction with the validation of the up trend line means our Skew switches to tentatively bullish above 1330.50.
We have sent an extra report to our customers this morning, outlining the POTENTIAL sell signal that’s looming in the FTSE Futures. Here is the text and accompanying chart:
We have a potential “Head and Shoulders” pattern forming in the FTSE, although the sell signal has not been given yet.
The sell signal comes if we break the “Neckline” which is at 5851, and probably on a closing basis as well (although a “clean” break on high volume would convince me enough to take the signal “intra-day”).
The target, using the traditional measuring technique for this pattern, would be 5600.
Of course this also comes off the back of the recent failure at 6095, which was very similar to the February high/failure (6086.5). The “Double Top” sell signal from this situation would only be triggered on a move through 5584.5, so a long way off yet….
5851 is on the radar, however, so “Watch this space!”
If you would like a free trial of our daily technical analysis reports please click on one of the links below:
“Professional Trial”, for Traders, Fund Managers, Brokers etc click HERE.
“Website Membership” for Individual traders, suitable if you’re Spread Betting or trading CFDs click HERE.
Below is a sample of a note we sent to our “Premium” clients today; those clients who receive our Trade Recommendations service covering Individual UK Stocks. We’ve gone a bit quiet on this front of late as we await some clarity from the markets. In fact it’s been one of the most frustrating periods I can remember on this front! This frustration may show in what we put out. If you are trading or Broking CFDs on UK Equities and required Technical Analysis to aid your decisions or offer ideas please let us know (clikc the link below) and we’ll set you up with a Free Trial.
http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/
So to today’s note:
If you’ve been wondering why we’ve been so quiet of late it’s because we’re doing lots of head scratching when looking at the charts right now. The Equity markets have been a very fraught hunting ground of late!
So with an apology for lack of recent recommendations here’s proof that we’re not just sitting around doing nothing: A list of every FTSE Stock with a line (sometime just a word!) to say what I’m seeing and why we’ve not got a conviction trade on!
AAL - Looks heavy, but is holding it’s 200 day MA (2950) and previous support in the low 29’s. Scope to 2490 if it breaks
ABF - Very rangy feel to the chart in the short term. Bigger picture suggest scope for weakness to 960 or even 920.
ADM - Hasn’t done anything since September
AGK - Could be worth buying, looking for a hold above 1700
AMEC - Hasn’t done anything since November
ARM - Probably worth buying, but Reward/Risk isn’t right
ANTO - Looks bearish, but downside could be restricted to 1208
AU - Going sideways - No trade here
AV - Going sideways - No trade here
AZN - 200 day MA at 3095 might weigh. 3145 and 3175 also resistance
BAE - Been going sideways since October 2008!!
BARC - Breaking support at 277.50, but next support is 261, then 256, then 253. Too many supports below for a decent short risk/reward wise
BATS - Bullish, should hold 2645
BG - Broke support at 1400 last week but came roaring back. Gap above at 1498 is a worry for the bulls though.
BLND - Slow, steady riser. Good one to hold, but buying at these levels?
BLT - Left an “Island Reversal” back in April, when we shorted it. Scratched the trade on the subsequent high. Doh!
etc etc!!
As the FTSE Futures near important resistance levels, the Year’s highs, we posted a comment this morning that started off in our normal level headed manner, then descended into something of a rant! Here it is for all to share!!!
“Today could be all about 5950. A hold above here keeps the bulls in the box seat and suggests we can head to 6030 then 6086.5″.
Stop there! Say no more. We held 5950. We bounced from a low of 5968 to hit the heady heights of 6033.5 by the day session close, getting up to 6039.5 in the after hours trade, and 6044 in today’s overnight trade.
So we are seeing off 6030 and now have our eyes trained upon 6086.5-87.5, the February high. This rally is on low volume. Back it while it lasts, but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t, and don’t come crying to me if it falls over, because I’ve been worrying about this and warning about it all the way. Houses built on sand don’t stay up for very long. Rant Over. Enjoy the Wedding!
As well as the FTSE FuturesTechs covers 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.
If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.
The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/
In what may become a weekly feature of the blog, here is a summary of our coverage of the FTSE futures for the week 28th June - 2nd July.
Monday, 28th June
We said:
“The bigger picture clears things up a bit. On the line chart plotting daily closes we are shaping up to give a big “Head and Shoulder” sell signal if we saw a close below 4966… Hence we are siding with the bears, and looking for a test of these key supports below”
What happened:
We got the sixth red candle in a row with the market failing short of R1 (through not reaching 4966).
Tuesday, 29th June
We said:
“…it looks increasingly like we’re going to retest 4970, then 4883.5, then 4801… 4897.5 is “the big one” as far as the longer term skew is concerned.”
What happened:
The Futures closed at 4862.5
Wednesday, 30th June
We said:
“We think a break of 4897.5 (already done) and 4852.5 (not yet done) will trigger further selling, but we are tempering our targets to 4620, or at worst 4342.
What happened:
There was a low at 4811 and a close at 4814.
Thursday, 1st July
We said:
“Unless we get back above 4851.5 and 4897 a bit sharpish things could deteriorate very quickly, and we could be in for a couple of weeks dominated by bears”
What happened:
The market failed at 4858 and sold down to 4757.
Friday, 2nd July
We said:
….we’re still below the Neckline of our Head and Shoulders pattern, and unless today’s US employment numbers can craft us a close above 4850 we’re going to get a close that doesn’t look good from a chart point of view.”
What happened:
With the jobs data it spiked briefly up to a high at 4852.5. As of 14:45 the market is threatening to test this level again….
FuturesTechs celebrates 10 years in business this year. Back in March 2000, exactly as the NASDAQ 100 peaked above 4800, I set up FuturesTechs to provide analysis for Caboto Securities, the firm I had just left, plus any other ex LIFFE traders who were interested. The LIFFE Floor had recently succumbed to the rise of Electronic trading and the “Locals” (traders who traded their own money) had all moved up to a number of offices dotted around London and the home counties. These guys were struggling. They needed an edge, as their previous edge (awareness of the ebb and flow of orders in the trading pits) had completely disappeared. These traders were the bread and butter for FuturesTechs for many years to come, and it’s only in recent years that we’ve branched out to offer our services to a host of other traders, brokers and market participants.
The Locals-turned-arcade traders traded The Bund, Bobl and Schatz spreads, as well as Euribor and Short Sterling Futures, again mostly spreads, so these were the first reports we wrote. Below is one our early reports from that era.
Bund Report from 2000 - Click here
In the early years I moved to Australia, then back to the UK, I had several stints with trading firms (alas day trading and writing analysis didn’t prove to be a good mix), and I wrote the reports from all manner of different locations. It wasn’t until 2007 that the business’s growth forced us to “grow up” and get our own premises.
By this time we were up to 4 staff, and writing around 25 pages of analysis per day. We were writing more and more reports, covering Commodity markets in response to demand from a new swathe of traders leaving Futures Floors like the IPE. We then decided to “branch out” and build a website to offer the reports to a wider audience. We employed the services of Silkstream, a fellow Southend-based company, and they did a fine job, and we now have a growing band of Private Investors and Individual clients who find this to be an essential part of their daily trading routine.
We’ve been able to add lots of functionality to the website as we’ve gone along, making it something that is constantly evolving; becoming better value for money by the day. We have recently posted our first Video on the Members Area, and this Blog continues to grow and grow, particularly with our “Tutorial” blogs that many have found useful when starting their journey in Technical Analysis.
2009 saw us add “Skew-Bars” to all of our reports, and this colour coding of the support and resistance levels has proved a real hit across the board.
2009 also saw our client base expand even further afield, offering trade recommendations to UK Equity traders, money managers and brokers.
We have recently added another layer to this product, also available within the members area, with our “Trade Signals” report, using our in depth knowledge of Technical Analysis to provide a daily list of things to watch that may be of interest.
Click here to see a sample page from this report.
If you’ve stumbled across us for the first time then why not request a trial of our service.
Professional clients: click here to see what we can offer you.
Private Investors/traders: click here for a website trial.
Here’s to the next 10 years!
Cheers,
Clive.
Our clients are short the miners and banks - are you?
Over the last few weeks our viewing of the Technical Analysis charts has seen us increasing our bearish slant on the FTSE, mainly citing Financials and Miners as the sectors looking most vulnerable.
Last week we issued short trade recommendations in BHP Billition at 2125, Xstrata at 1198, Barclays at 365 and the FTSE Index at 5632.
Incidentally some of our best results in April were trades in the Finance Sectors, where we were long. We are not just banging one drum. We use Technical Analysis to tell us which way the market’s heading, and we issue our trades accordingly.
We’re still running the short trades mentioned above, as are many of our clients who follow our service. In situations where trades start to make good money we cover half the position, usually for a 5-8% profit, then run the balance by adjusting stops and targets, allowing Technical Analysis to manage trades for maximum profit potential.
Our daily reports have been increasingly warning of a pullback and our next target for the FTSE is 5340.
Why would you not want to access this invaluable, independent analysis?