FuturesTechs Blog

Ichimoku Charts are a tool many traders swear by, and which we may occasionally use as an ingredient in our daily analysis. This article explains the basics.

The main source I’m using will be “Ichimoku Charts” by Nicole Elliott, an excellent book which you can purchase from the Global Investor Bookshop by clicking here.

Part I: Construction

We start with the humble Japanese candlestick chart, the type that you will see on our reports every day. Replete with patterns, it is the building block of Ichimoku. Note that we generally only use daily charts for Ichimoku, although that’s more a product of convention than for any other reason.

Next, we add some special moving averages, with periods nine and twenty-six. These don’t use the close, as would normally be used in the West, but the “mid-price”, i.e. the price halfway between the high and the low of the period in question.

This mid-price is used to calculate each of the Ichimoku lines (except one) and is a convention passed on by the Japanese.  Similarly, the choice of 26 for the longer moving average is based on the length of the standard Japanese business month.

Now for some terminology: the nine-day moving average is called Tenkan-sen (the “Conversion Line”) while the twenty-six-day moving average is Kijun-sen (the “Base Line”). We can use these like we would any other pair of moving averages (see the previous blog tutorial).

Next, we add the defining feature of Ichimoku charts: the cloud. Here’s the complete picture:

The pink line at the top of the shaded cloud area in the centre of this chart is called Senkou Span A (”Leading Span A”), and is calculated as the average of the two special moving averages we had already added to the chart. As the average of two moving averages, it is thus a kind of weighted moving average, giving greater emphasis to the recent prices.

The other line forming the cloud is called Senkou Span B and is the average of the highest price of the last 52 days and the lowest price of the last 52 days. Since we aren’t necessarily expanding the 52-period range all the time, this regularly stays constant day-to-day (you can see how it has flat periods in the above chart).

Both of these lines are plotted 26 days ahead of the market. This means that for the current day, the positions of these lines are calculated using the data available 26 days ago. In other words, the current price is compared with what the weighted moving average and the longer-period range were 26 days ago, not what they are now.

Note also that the prices used here are the Japanese “midpoint” prices, not the close as might be expected in Western technical analysis.

The observant will notice that apart from the moving averages and the cloud lines, there is another line included in the chart above. This is the brown line (colours may vary) which is at the top of the chart during the middle of the pictured timeframe, and is the Chikou Span (”Lagging Span”). It is simply the daily close, plotted at a delay of 26 periods - hence why it “lags”. Each candle’s close, therefore, is plotted against the candle 26 days previously. Note that the Chikou Span is the only line in the Ichimoku chart which uses the closing price in its calculation.

Part II: Analysis

We can take Ichimoku Analysis to almost any level of depth, but the key ideas are as follows:

A. Moving Averages

These are used like the ordinary moving averages are used in traditional Western analysis: as support and resistance levels, getting a bullish message if the price is above the moving averages, or bearish if it is below. Also check for bullish/bearish crossover signals as the averages change position (see the previous blog article). A bullish crossover signal is stronger if it is seen above the cloud, while a bearish crossover signal is stronger if it happens below.

B. Ichimoku Cloud

We are bullish when the price is above the cloud, bearish when it is below.

We also use the cloud lines (Senkou Spans A and B)  as support/resistance levels, getting reversal signals when they are broken.

The width of the cloud doesn’t really matter, except insofar as a thicker cloud means that it will take longer for us to reverse skew by a breakout through the opposite side.

On a related note, the colour of the cloud doesn’t really matter either - it just tells us which line of the cloud is on top. In the above chart, red means that Senkou Span A is on top, while blue means that Senkou Span B is on top.

The Dow chart above would have had us thinking bear thoughts first of all as the price dipped below the cloud. Since it didn’t manage to get a close below it, however, we probably wouldn’t have sided with the bulls outright, still waiting for a clean move away from it. When the price soon rallied back above it, we could then have taken an outright bullish skew.

Hopefully, this skew would have been maintained for most of the period shown above. Of course, the candlesticks did give bearish reversal warnings at various points, and there were a couple of short-term corrections. The solution might be to use the candlestick patterns for specific short-term entry and exit points, while using Ichimoku for an insight into the big picture. For those who are investing for the medium to long term, they might ignore the short-term candlestick patterns completely, or use them merely to make small adjustments to their positions or as a minor piece of evidence relative to the longer-term Ichimoku cloud.

The lessons from this are familiar: use more than one indicator, be flexible, and always act appropriately with respect to your investment or trading timeframe.

C. Chikou Span

This last piece of the jigsaw is simply the close mapped 26 days previously. With this, we can check if the recent close is above or below the candle of 26 days ago, and use that as another piece of evidence.

The Chilkou Span is quite easily recognisable, no matter what colour it is on your chart, since it is just the line chart at a lag. We can see it spike upwards in the above when this market broke to the upside in September. It’s not complicated, of course, but simply knowing where you are in relation to the price last month is a useful piece of the jigsaw. It’s bullish if the Chikou Span is above the candle of 26 days ago, or bearish if it’s below the candle 26 days ago, and we get bullish and bearish signals as they change position.

Part III: Conclusion

We’ve explained Ichimoku charts in a nutshell. The cloud is the most important, and the most unique feature, with two lines: Senkou Span A, a moving average which gives greater weight to the more recent prices, and Senkou Span B, the midpoint of a long-term range. We’ll tend to be bullish above the cloud, and bearish below it. We’ll also monitor the action of two special moving averages and the lagged closing price (Chikou Span). There are a host of signals to watch out for, and our conviction to buy or sell is strongest when all of the signals are aligned.

For a more detailed exposition of Ichimoku Charts, see “Ichimoku Charts” by Nicole Elliott. To read the daily technical analysis we produce at FuturesTechs, sign up for a free trial.

Graham Neary MSTA (graham@futurestechs.co.uk)

As part of our continued efforts to explain the major technical indicators to our clients, what follows is a simple explanation of the Stochastics momentum indicators often used in our analysis.

Originally devised by George C. Lane in the 1950s, the Stochastic oscillator is one of the easiest indicators to interpret. It tells us where the price sits in relation to its recent trading range, in a fixed 0 – 100 range and using different degrees of smoothing to provide some stability. Coming in a few different versions, their interpretation rests on the sensible assumption that price pressure is on the upper end of the range in an uptrend, and on the lower end in a downtrend.

Before we create a Stochastic oscillator, we need to decide what time parameter to use. Ten periods is our preferred choice for our daily charts, capturing the range of the previous two weeks.

The simplest one, the Fast Stochastic, has two lines: %K and %D, calculated as follows:

•    %K = [close – low (N-range)]/[high(N-range) – low(N-range)]
•    %D = SMA (%K)

So %K is the position of the most recent close in the range of the last N days; if the close was the low, we get 0, while if the close was the high, we get 100. And %D is the simple moving average of this series (we also need to choose a period for this moving average; typically, we use 3).

Fig 1. Fast Stochastics

It’s always helpful for an indicator to be bounded in a constant range, such as this is between 0 and 100. For one thing, we don’t need to worry about long-run matters like inflation: you’d get a similar pattern for an uptrend in the Dow whether you were looking at it in 1950 or 2000, without any need to rescale it. This means we can easily look for recurring patterns in a market over a period of decades.

It also means that we can easily use the indicator for intermarket analysis. Since the oscillator is bounded as it is, the patterns have the same size regardless of whether you’re watching a stock that trades for £1.00, £20.00 or £50.00, a currency pair or an interest rate future!

Getting back to the main topic, the only major problem with the Fast Stochastic is the lack of smoothing. Note how jagged the %K (blue) line is in the FTSE Index chart above. It reaches extreme readings quite frequently, jumping about and making it hard to interpret.

The solution is easy: we use the smoother red line of the Fast Stochastic as our blue %K line instead, and then average it and use the new average as our new red line! So the new red line is the average of the average of the old blue line (simple, isn’t it?!) And this is how we construct the “Slow Stochastic”.

Fast Stochastic:

• %K = position in N-range
• %D = SMA (%K)

Slow Stochastic:

• %K = %D (Fast Stochastic)
• %D = SMA (%D (Fast Stochastic))

Fig 2. Fast Stochastics vs. Slow Stochastics

We can compare the different Stochastics in the chart above. Observe that the slower red line in the Fast Stochastic is identical to the faster blue line in the Slow Stochastic.

Now we can see the advantage of the Slow Stochastics: they don’t reach the overbought/oversold levels so easily, meaning that we are whipsawed less frequently.

What are these overbought and oversold levels? Generally, we consider anything above 80 to be overbought, and anything below 20 to be oversold.

This system of lines provides a bunch of easily observed buy/sell signals. The simplest of these is simply to take a buy signal when % K crosses the slower % D line from below and a sell signal when it crosses from above. However, this generally happens much too frequently to provide useful signals.

The solution most commonly used is to wait until the slower %D line makes it into one of the extreme overbought/oversold regions, and only use crossovers which occur there. This gives us fewer false signals, with those we do get more likely to be at genuine market turning points.

Another technique, which Stochastics have in common with other indicators, is divergence: when the oscillator moves in the opposite direction to price. This is a warning sign that a trend is running out of momentum. So, for example, if we have an uptrend on the price chart with a sequence of higher highs being formed, but the Stochastics are forming a sequence of lower lows, then we can say that the uptrend is losing momentum and that we will give extra weight to any argument that a reversal is underway. The chart below illustrates one of those divergence scenarios with a resultant sell-off.

Fig 3. Divergence of Price and Slow Stochastics

As with other oscillators, the biggest danger when using it is to assume that a reversal is imminent simply because it is at an extreme measurement. This isn’t necessarily true! Price pressure will remain on the upper end of the range, and hence the Stochastic will stay at elevated levels, for as long as the market is trending.

Fig 4. Sustained “overbought” Stochastics measurement.

In the Soybeans futures market recently, for example, the Slow Stochastics remained in the overbought region from May 6th to June 11th. Why wait for a reversal through all of time, instead of just running with the trend? The Stochastic crossover signal is an excellent counter-trend signal, but that’s not much use when the market just keeps on trending.

This would have been a better market to trade with the Stochastics:

Fig 5. Ranging market with useful Stochastic signals.

We weren’t so strict as to wait for the %D (red) line to get into overbought/oversold territory before we accepted a signal, but most of them worked pretty well. The two signals in red font weren’t successful (we were mostly flat after the red buy signal, and the market rallied after the red sell signal), but six of the eight crossovers were followed by decent moves in the direction of the signal.

The lesson: always adapt your indicators to the market you’re trading, and remember that even when it appears to be working, no signal is infallible!

Graham Neary MSTA (graham@futurestechs.co.uk)

The MACD indicator is one of the most popular tools in technical analysis, and it’s another tool that we occasionally use in our reports.

Developed by Gerard Appel in the 1960s, the basic idea of MACD histogram is to follow the trend in the market under consideration, with a special hybrid of two different moving averages.

We take two exponential moving averages (typically with periods 12 and 26) and subtract the slower (26 period) from the faster (12 periods) to get the “MACD line”, given in blue in the chart below.

Observe that in this market the faster (brown) moving average is always higher than the slower (pink) moving average, so that the MACD line is always positive.

When the moving averages are closest together, MACD is at its lowest level. As the moving averages get further apart, MACD rises accordingly. And since the faster (brown, 12-day) moving average is always greater than the slower (blue, 26-day) moving average, MACD – the latter subtracted from the former - is always greater than zero.

So what’s the red line beside the MACD line? That’s the Trigger or Signal line, and is the 9-period exponential moving average of the MACD line. That makes it the average of a difference between two averages!

The red line provides us with a handy way to interpret MACD, providing easily recognised buy and sell signals. For example, a trader could take a buy signal whenever the MACD line crosses the signal line from below, or a sell signal whenever it crosses from above. This is really just a more advanced version of taking buy and sell signals whenever moving averages of different periods intersect with each other.

To help isolate the distance between MACD and the signal line, some people plot this distance as a histogram along with the line, like this:

With the histogram in place, we can spot the buy and sell signals whenever it crosses from positive to negative, or vice versa. We can also get early warnings of the signal as we watch the histogram reach highs and lows. When it reaches a high, and starts declining, we know that the sell signal is getting closer; when it forms a low, and starts rising, we know that a buy signal is imminent.

Another way to use MACD is to look for any divergence it has with the price action. This helps us to identify situations where a trend is running out steam – where the price is continuing to move in the direction of the trend, but without the conviction it had before. This principle provides us with early clues of a reversal.

Above is an example of a reversing bull market where the price reached a higher high, but the falling MACD line hinted that all was not well.

As a word of warning, here’s an example of a ranging market where the choppiness means that getting useful buy or sell signals is impossible. In this case we’ve placed the Buy and Sell signals on the days after MACD and the trigger actually intersected, to give a more realistic “worst case” scenario, where we don’t get to execute our trade until the signal is confirmed on a closing basis. As you can see, the results aren’t impressive:

As with everything else, the MACD is not a cure-all. As a trend-following indicator though, it is certainly a useful tool and helps to place any market in a bullish/bearish context, as well as providing us with interesting signals. Whether we are looking for specific crossover trade signals, or just watching how elevated or depressed the MACD line is to tell us how bullish or bearish the market is, it’s something that’s worth keeping an eye on in a wide variety of situations.

Some principles to bear in mind here and with indicators in general:

1. Parameters can be adjusted to take into account the particular market you’re trading. If the market you’re in is alternating trend too fast for the MACD to provide profitable signals, adjust the time parameters down to make it more responsive.
2. Indicators are always of secondary importance to the price action itself: that means simple support and resistance levels, trendlines, etc.
3. All technical tools can and should be used in conjunction with each other. If the MACD signal agrees with each of your other tools of analysis, then you could be onto a winner. But if MACD is telling you one thing, and a candlestick pattern is telling you another, then think twice! (this is a whole subject in itself which we’ll have a go at covering in later blogs).

Graham Neary MSTA (graham@futurestechs.co.uk)

We often get asked “How can I use your product?”

FuturesTechs provides support and resistance levels to professional traders across a range of different Futures markets. They use our levels as the basis of their day trading.

Unfortunately I often come across traders using them in different ways, so it’s tough to give a definitive answer to that question. We are all different, and do things in different ways, and the individual’s interpretation of the levels we produce is no exception.

Let me make something clear right now. A lot of what we do here at FuturesTechs is basic common sense. We are almost “reporting” the technical news.

Take today’s FTSE Futures price action as an example. In our report this morning we talked about how important resistance at 4220 was, and we made this a bold level to make sure our readers got the message!

It was a VERY obvious level, being Friday’s high: Quite simple, unless you decided to ignore the simple and obvious.

It gave us the high this morning, not once but twice.

The low between these two highs was 4174, so we got a sell signal (Double Top) on the short term (eg 10 minute) charts once this gave way. We had 4163 posted as our first support, so on the way back down (if you hadn’t sold at the bold resistance at 4220) there were two more opportunities to sell; once we broke 4174, or even safer once we sold off through 4163.

Where to get out? We had a bold “area” of support at S5 in today’s report, between 4051.5 and 4064.5. The lunchtime low was 4066.5, where we suddenly started posting reversal candlestick on our trusty 10 minute chart - time to cash in.

Hopefully this gives some insight into how one can use technical levels to help decide where you put on trades, and where you get out.

Ideally you should aim to create trades with a basic set of criteria.

• Trade in the direction of the overall trend.

In other words In a downtrend sell ahead of an important resistance with a tight stop if it breaks.

Buy ahead of a key support level in a rising market.

• Targets should be acheivable, especially considering the current market conditions. It is Martin Luther King Day in the US today, so large swings of volatility are unlikely.

• Targets should also not be “blocked” by large resistance or support levels. For example if you decide to buy a Stock at £1.03 with a stop at 99p then you want to have a target of at least £1.11, to give a 2:1 reward to risk ratio: You are planning to make twice as much as you’re willing to lose - the way it should always be.

But if £1.10 is an old high on several occasions it is hopeful at best to ask the market to trade £1.11, so you have set a target that’s going to be tough to achieve.

Whenever you’re looking for trades to put on you want to try and skew things so that it’s going to be tough to get stopped out, but much easier to head to your target.

This doesn’t mean you’re not ever going to get stopped out, it just means you’re stacking the odds in your favour. This is what Technical Analysis does, and what we hope to help YOU to do when you use our service for YOUR trading decisions.

And one last thing while we’re talking about stops. RESPECT YOUR STOP. It is very easy to move a stop further away if a market’s getting near to triggering your loss. If you have set a stop, then LEAVE IT WHERE IT IS!

So far 2009 has been a tough year to call. Volatility has dropped, but we haven’t gained any firm directional traction yet in most anything. Although it goes against our usual mode of operation to give longer term calls we are still happy with our overall view for Equity markets for 2009; that we will make a new low in the early part of this year, but end the year quite a bit higher than where we are now…