FuturesTechs Blog

Things are getting interesting in the Oil markets, with signs of the market topping out. Our thoughts on the Brent contract are reproduced in this week’s Investors Chronicle, but there is something worth noting in the WTI as well, as per below, our commentary from this morning:

J Welles Wilder, one of the brightest minds in TA in my lifetime, and the guy who came up with indicators such as RSI, DMI and Parabolic SAR, suggests in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” (published in 1978, so not that “new”!) that you can get a definitive signal when Divergences occur, by following his “Failure Swing” methodology. RSI topped out (with a reading of 76) on April 8th, when the price chart topped out at 113.46. We have since made a new high for price with a 114.83 print on May 2nd.

RSI topped out at 67.70 on that day (a lower high on the Indicator, a higher high on the price chart, or a “Bearish Divergence” as technicians call it). The low (on the RSI reading) between these two highs was 53, on April 12th. We broke below here yesterday, which gives a “Top Failure Swing” sell signal. These signals are usually pretty timely and robust.

We also broke support at 109.95 yesterday, which moved us “into the red” as far as our SkewBar is concerned.

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This morning’s support and resistance levels in the Eurostoxx 50 Futures included 2957 as an important reference above and 2925 as our first support below. It is Midday now (in the UK) and the range has been 2926-2958. This is the kind of reliability our customers depend on us for.

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Today’s Comment and Chart for the Eurostoxx 50 Futures:

Stoxx opened towards Mondays low at 2940, tested higher at 2952 and then drifted to 2925 into midday. A rally into the cash close up to 2950 wasn’t sustained after hours, and the close at 2936 confirmed the previous days Bearish Engulfing candle.

Although there was an uptick in volume the confirming candle didn’t breach any support levels so we’re bearish, but somewhat  tentatively.

Marabuzo resistance remains at 2957. The 76.4% retracement of the February - March bear move remains at 2983.  Horizontal and Marabuzo support stands at 2918 and 2912 respectively.

FuturesTechs covers a number of contracts within the Energy complex; Brent Crude, GasOil, NYMEX WTI, Natural Gas, and Carbon Emissions.

As well as this our Commodity coverage includes Gold and Silver, plus Corn, Wheat and Soybeans.

Below is today’s Brent comment and chart. We also provide Support and Resistance levels, gleaned from our analysis of the charts, plus “Automated” levels from things like Pivot Points, Moving Averages, and Market Profile.

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Thursday’s high was 126.66. Shy of the 127.02 high from April 11th (looking at the continuation charts).

Friday’s high was 126.10, and yesterday’s high was 126.54, so we have some resistance to worry about all of a sudden.

We also have a potential reversal of the “Double Top” variety, but ONLY if we see a sell off through 119.03, which is our S7 support today, so is still a while away from becoming a reality.

I’ll keep it simple today. I was on CNBC last night, when I talked about Short Sterling, the Dollar Index, and Silver, and what the Candlestick Charts are showing us on those markets.

Please  Click here to go to our “Media” page to see the Video.

Happy long weekend to all. I love a good wedding!

As the FTSE Futures near important resistance levels, the Year’s highs, we posted a comment this morning that started off in our normal level headed manner, then descended into something of a rant! Here it is for all to share!!!

“Today could be all about 5950. A hold above here keeps the bulls in the box seat and suggests we can head to 6030 then 6086.5″.

Stop there! Say no more. We held 5950. We bounced from a low of 5968 to hit the heady heights of 6033.5 by the day session close, getting up to 6039.5 in the after hours trade, and 6044 in today’s overnight trade.

So we are seeing off 6030 and now have our eyes trained upon 6086.5-87.5, the February high. This rally is on low volume. Back it while it lasts, but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t, and don’t come crying to me if it falls over, because I’ve been worrying about this and warning about it all the way. Houses built on sand don’t stay up for very long. Rant Over. Enjoy the Wedding!

As well as the FTSE FuturesTechs covers 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

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The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

Last Thursday we highlighted Silver, which we described as being “on a tear”. We have since added 10% then given back 10%, rejecting a high just shy of the psychologically important 50 bucks mark. Here’s what we’ve put out to our clients today:

“This is no reason to go short. Selling something that’s going up is dangerous, bordering on stupid. Sure, it probably can’t go on, but for now there’s no signs of a reversal in sight”.

This line from last Thursday’s report seemed to create a bit of a stir and it looks like it was quoted on at least one newswire story. So what is a sign of a reversal?

A candle with a large range but a really small real body? Yes, that sort of thing Like yesterday’s? (A Long Legged Doji, to give it a name). Precisely….

Yesterday this one traded up to 49.820. In today’s overnight session we have traded over 10% off of this high. Interesting times. Where did we top out the last time around, when Bunker Hunt was buying all the Silver in sight? 50 bucks, give or take…

Channel support is 42.735. We would “call a top” if the market drops through here, especially if it happens quickly.

Here at FuturesTechs we cover 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

Below is today’s sample of one of our reports, looking at Silver, which is “going parabolic” as we put it!

We cover 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

Further gains since we last wrote, and this is “going parabolic” now, it seems, adding solid percentage gains by the day. A month ago we were trading around $35, so have added near on 30% in that short space of time. This is no reason to go short. Selling something that’s going up is dangerous, bordering on stupid. Sure, it probably can’t go on, but for now there’s no signs of a reversal in sight. There is scope for this move to head to 47.580 in the short term as this is where the top line of the channel sits. The daily RSI is at it’s highest reading since April 2006, but as we said earlier in the week this isn’t a sell signal per se, a move back below 75 from here gives a sell signal…

From today we plan to post one of our Technical Analysis Reports on this Blog on a daily basis as a sample for anyone interested in a Free Trial. We will focus on a market that is showing something interesting from a technical point of view.

We cover 22 markets every day, giving Chart, Support and Resistance levels, plus Commentary each morning before the markets open. This award winning service is widely read by Investment Professionals, and some of our clients have been with us since we started over 10 years ago.

If you are an Individual Trader please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/trial/ to request a free trial of our Web-based service.

The same reports are available to Fund Managers, Brokers and “Pro” Traders in printable format. If you are in this category please request a trial at http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/

In today’s “Forex Lunch” report we highlighted a Flag Pattern in Cable (GBPUSD):

Cable has been in a consolidation pattern since late January, trading in a broadening range between 1.5937 and 1.6429. Recent price action within this range has formed a pattern known as  a flag, consisting of a short term counter trend channel after a significant directional move. The counter-trend channel is highlighted by the red arrows, whilst the flag ‘pole’ is highlighted by the green arrow. This formation would be confirmed by a close above the down trend channel at 1.6336, with additional confirmation given by a close above Horizontal resistance at 1.6429. The implication of this formation is a move to 1.6828.

Our chief Technical Analyst Clive Lambert was on CNBC yesterday talking about Gold, Brent Crude and Wheat, saying bullish things about all three.

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We cover all the major Commodity markets as well as Forex, Equities and Bonds, covering UK, EU and US Markets.

The CNBC clip is on our “Media” page on www.futurestechs.co.uk/media.html

Clive was on CNBC this morning over the phone, talking about the short term outlooks for the FTSE Futures, BP and Vedanta. Please click here to go to our “Media” page and take a look!

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Happy New Year to all.