By in commentary

Bear Market Rally or The Real Deal?

Neither, I suspect, is the answer to the above question, at least not as far as where we are at this very moment is concerned:

We have been bullish since early March, and have seen the market “climbing the wall of worry” as we predicted, with no-one quite believing the rally. We are not doing the “Harry Hindsight/told you so” bit here. Just ask one of our clients, or feel free to check our “Media” page on our website and listen to what we’ve said on CNBC in recent months.

But just now everyone (else) we seem to see and hear on CNBC and Bloomberg TV is getting bullish. So we’re starting to think we’re near a top for now on that basis (when too many people are getting bullish it’s time to find the exit!), and the last few days have seen some pretty uncertain price action to back this up.

When I say “starting to think we’re near a top” I don’t mean the top of a bear market rally, though. We think there will be a pullback some time soon, which may well last the whole summer (“Sell in May and go Away” is a pretty watertight strategy if you don’t take it completely literally, and if you exercise some finesse or process re timing your “sell”!). During this time you will see many commentators saying “told you so” with respect to the bear market rally story (probably the same guys who this week have been saying we’re going up; Hmmm…).

But we will not make a new low. In fact we don’t think the S&P will drop below 766, or the Dow below 7240 , and we will look for the FTSE 100 to hold above 4000 or at worse 3850 on any retracement move. The sell off will only go on long enough to get the weak longs panicking out, and only long enough to have the “bear market rally” camp saying “told you so”. THEN we will start to rally again, and we will end 2009 in fine fettle.

Our customers will benefit from knowing if and when our views change, because we WILL happily change our skew if we are proved wrong, such is the flexibility of a short term approach utilising Technical Analysis.

For now I am preparing to “Sell in May…” and it will be interesting to see what happens this week, prior to my appearance on CNBC on Thursday evening (May 14th). For now key supports are holding and we’re still short term Bullish, but this could change very quickly, and evidence is mounting in favour of a pullback.