FuturesTechs Blog

Event: 4 Practical workshops on Technical Analysis, delivered over 2 days by our chief Technical Analyst, Clive Lambert

Date: March 17^th and 18^th 2010

Place: MWB Business Exchange, Houndsditch (City of London).

Details: Join Clive Lambert for a 2 day seminar introducing the basics of Technical Analysis, then delving deeper into three key methodologies used by traders every day.

This course is suitable for anyone from a new trader to an experienced market professional wishing to expand their knowledge on essential technical tools for short and medium term trading.

These practical modules on key trading methodologies may count towards 12 hours of your FSA CPD, based on them satisfying you training requirements*.

Clive Lambert has been a central figure in the UK Futures day trading arena for 10 years now, and has taught thousands of traders how to incorporate Technical Analysis into their daily routine. He is the Author of “Candlestick Charts” and is an accomplished and interesting speaker, who delivers seminars for many organisations including the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

March 17^th - 10am to 1pm - Module 1 - Introduction to Technical Analysis/Support and Resistance - £300 (+VAT)

• Clive will explain the basic principles and the main chart types before looking into the creation of support and resistance levels, and how to spot potential turning points using methods like trendlines and chart pattern recognition.

March 17^th - 2pm to 5pm - Module 2 - Candlestick Analysis - £300 (+VAT)

• After a run through of the history and construction of candlesticks Clive will go through the 7 most powerful patterns in candlestick analysis, sharing his unique insight into the “psychology” of each pattern, and their application on whatever timeframe chart you’re viewing. Clive is one of the UK’s leading proponents of Candlestick Analysis.

March 18^th - 10am to 1pm - Module 3 - Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators - £300 (+VAT)

• These studies are sometimes overused and often misunderstood. Clive will run through the common Indicators used in by different types of traders, the mistakes that are often made in their interpretation, and the correct way to utilise these studies to enhance your trading and understanding of price movement.

March 18^th - 2pm to 5pm - Module 4 - Market Profile - £300 (+VAT)

• Originally from the Futures Pits in Chicago this methodology is extremely tough to convey, as evidenced by the pile of difficult to read books on the subject. Clive breaks down the ideas behind Market Profile and tells first hand, in a practical way, how traders in London and Chicago use this in their daily trading. He has “grown up” around traders using Profile, so understands not only the complexities of this methodology, but its benefits to day traders.

Class sizes will be limited to 12 people, so you are guaranteed training that is both relevant and “personal”. All methodologies will be discussed using live charts of markets familiar to you.

Top notch Refreshments and Lunch will be provided, as well as course notes, either in bound, full colour “paper” format or on Memory Stick.

Delegates will also get a free signed copy of Clive’s book “Candlestick Charts”.
The course will take place at the MWB Business Exchange in Houndsditch (EC3, 5 minute walk from Liverpool Street); a fantastic modern space where delegates will enjoy excellent facilities.

Book now by clicking here or call us on +44 (0) 1702 333461.

Remember, places are limited.

Or take advantage of our generous discounts:

All four modules - £1000 (+VAT), or £800 (+VAT) for FuturesTechs customers**

FuturesTechs customers** can chose individual modules for £250 (+VAT).

If you wish to discuss block bookings for any of these Modules please let us know. I’m sure we can sort something out!!

Yours,

Clive

* Check with your compliance officer prior to booking

**Discount does not apply to FuturesTechs Website customers on month-to-month contracts.

The finalists for the 2010 Technical Analyst Awards have been announced, and we’re pleased to report that FuturesTechs has been shortlisted in the “Best Fixed Income Research and Strategy” category.

We are up against some strong competition including RBS and UBS.

“Friends” of FuturesTechs that have been nominated in other categories include CQG in the “Best Data Provider” and “Best Technical Analysis Platform” categories, and Progress Apama in the “Best Automated Trading Product” group.

The winners will be announced towards the end of March.

Other Company News:

On April 6th we celebrate our 10th birthday. We started life writing reports on the Bund, Bobl, T-Notes and 30 Year Bonds, and have since expanded to cover 28 markets in all (and counting!), covering Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange.

Our client base has morphed from a hard core of ex-LIFFE traders to a wide range of users, from Prop traders to Brokers, End Users and Fund Managers.

Last year we added Individual UK Equities (FTSE 350) to our product range, catering to CFD Brokers and Fund Management/trading groups. We send out structured buy/sell recommendations, and are working hard to add to the distribution channels for this, as more and more institutions show an interest in this product.

If you wish to see our track record or receive a trial of our daily recommendations click here and let us know.

2010 is already shaping up to be a big year for FuturesTechs as we continue to widen our readership by providing a reliable, timely, easy to read, innovative and trusted service. We recently asked our clients for feedback on the services we provide. Below are a few replies we received:

“I believe you are a market leader in technical analysis and reporting” - PW  - Ireland

“When trading the FTSE , FuturesTechs provides key technical levels that count whichever way the market is moving. At the click of a mouse , the analysis is delivered in an easy to read format and is part of a robust and reliable service which is spot on” - RH - East Sussex

“I don’t trade unless I have my FuturesTechs levels on my desk” - JB - Dublin

“As a company we use FuturesTechs for both daily technical analysis and charting seminars. On both counts they have been professional, dependable and efficient. The daily reports are easy to read and always on time, and should intra-day markets exceed the levels stated in the reports, they will always send out an update with added commentary. The charting seminars provided by Clive are tailored to the needs of the group and are comprehensive in their content. Clive is friendly and approachable and always very thorough. We are very happy with the services provided by FuturesTechs, and we would thoroughly recommend using them” - HT - London.

We (mostly!!) thank our clients for their continued support.

Click here if you wish to discuss a Trial of our Professional Service, or Click here to try out our Website Members’ Area.

WHAT DO WE THINK NOW?

At FuturesTechs we analyse 28 different markets each day and give our trading clients regular up to date analysis on the current thinking and market’s state of mind. We look at Bonds, Forex, Commodities and Equities. At the moment Stock Markets are the most interesting, providing the biggest conundrum for traders and operators.

We believe that Fundamental analysis is flawed (by not taking into account sentimenrt), and that most Economists get it wrong. A far more sensible way to look at the markets is to work out what the trend is, and stick with the trend, then do your best to spot (as early as possible!) any changes in trend.

One thing we’ve learnt over the years is that the market usually tops out when most people are getting bullish, and dashing in to get long, afraid to miss out. In other words when people are getting greedy. This could definitely be applied to Gold at present, and probably also to Equities!

The opposite situation creates bottoms and emerged in March when Equities bottomed out  -

Fear gripped the market and everyone ran for the door. We didn’t. We took a step back, and realised that many in the market had given up, that there were plenty of doomsayers talking the FTSE down to 2500. Our analysts said at the time that the market was nearing a bottom. In fact we said it on CNBC, so if you don’t believe us click below link to have a look.

There is a saying that “Harry Hindsight is the best trader in the world”, and we would suggest that if anyone says “I got long back in March” ask them to prove it!

In recent weeks we have been concerned that this up move is coming to an end, and despite the fact there is usually a “Santa Claus rally” we are still erring on the side of worrying about downside risk. We really haven’t gone very far since September, if you take a step back and look at things.

I used a Warren Buffett line last week in one of our reports and it sums up quite well everything I’ve said above.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”.

He’s done quite well out of it!

We follow the trend, but are always looking out for when the market’s psychology gets to an extreme.

Feel free to ask for a Free Trial by clicking the link below. Don’t forget to click below as well to view our comment on CNBC back in March.

Trial FuturesTechs here.

Check out Clive Lambert’s March 4th CNBC appearance here.

Here at FuturesTechs we are constantly evolving our product, and in recent years we have added a merry band of private customers and ‘at home’ traders to our following via our website members area.

One request from a good few of our less experienced members is for a bit more clarity as to our current thinking about short term trend, and preferably something visual. So we have devised the coloured bar that you can see next to our levels on the left. We will release this new innovation on Monday 16th November.

You can see there are three colours on display: Green, Grey and Red.

If we are in the green zone the market is bullish technically. In the grey zone the technical outlook for the markets is neutral or uncertain. In the red zone the technicals are bearish.

These “skews” are short term outlooks. The medium and long term pictures may differ. We have decided that the profile of our average customer is short term, so this is the most useful timeframe for a tool of this type.

So let’s think about how different looking SkewBars should be treated.

To the left is an example of a SkewBar that’s more or less all green, with only a dash of red at the bottom. This means that the market is very bullish, and that you probably want to be buying it! We suggest that you trade “to the long side”, looking to try and buy dips to support levels, or buy breakouts through resistance levels. If you were scanning through each of our reports looking for something that might be worth a buy this is the sort of SkewBar you’d be looking for.

Stops can be placed below any support level, of course, but it’s only when we move out of the Green area that the short term skew changes from bullish.

In this case there is no Neutral Zone, the market flips straight to bearish below 120.98.

In this SkewBar the market is pretty neutral, only turning bearish if we break below bold support at 121.63. The neutral skew stays in place until we get all the way up to 123.04. It is only above here that the bulls regain control of things.

In Neutral markets you should can trade in either direction but don’t hold too much conviction. Many traders like neutral conditions as they can do plenty of lower risk “range” trades, trying to do more trades but take smaller amounts of money each time.

You may want to try and “play the range” by buying at the bottom end of the grey band, selling if and when the market gets near the top.

If we then break out of the range by moving into the red or green zones then things have changed and playing the range is no longer the game in town.

Our last example SkewBar is a bear market, and this doesn’t change unless we get above 123.04. Even above here the market only turns neutral. There is no green portion on our SkewBar at all, which means the bulls don’t even get as look in!

We hope this new innovation is a helpful visual addition to our reports. It has been suggested to us that sometimes the reports can be a little ambiguous, and while we try not to send mixed messages sometimes that’s just what the market conditions are. Hopefully the SkewBars will give a little more clarity.

To all our long term readers we’d like to point out that nothing’s changed with this innovation with respect to how we analyse the markets, we’ve just added a bit of colour, if you like!

As always your feedback would be most welcome. info@futurestechs.co.uk

Last week’s big highlight was meant to be the US Employment Report. As it turned out all the action was before this, and the numbers were a bit of a damp squib (like the topical analogy there?).

Equity markets have caught a fresh bid, and we were early to catch this as there were several reversal patterns on major indices at the start of last week. We were bullish from Wednesday onwards, so have reaped some firm rewards on the back of that timely change of sides.

Most of our readers are short term traders so they benefit from these timely “calls”. Longer term traders and Investors may be on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity to get in, and coming out of a dip or retracement is an ideal opportunity. Often, as was the case last week, our charts can tell us nice and early if it’s likely that a pullback has come to an end.

We are now looking to see if resistance at 5300 in the FTSE Index will be seen off. If this  happens the next upside target is 5650, a failure high from last August.

Gold is on another big run at the moment and has traded up to a high of $1111 as of yesterday morning. Yesterday’s candlestick (A “Shooting Star”) gave a warning that things may be getting toppy at these levels but so far we haven’t seen any downside moves to confirm this, so we’re sticking to the idea of higher prices going forward, targeting $1192 next, then $1250.

Oil is stuck in a range for now. Brent Crude has traded between $75 and $80 for weeks now. We expect this range to get broken with a move higher, and we would then target $90 and beyond. We have been suggesting to our clients to buy the dips to $75, and whatever their timeframe this has worked out well. Longer term holders would never have been offside, whereas those who trade in and out should have been able to jump out at $78 to $80 on several occasions then buy again at £75 next time it comes off.

If you are uncertain of any of the terminology used or methodologies discussed in this report you could swot up on our website. Feel free to ask for a Free Trial by clicking here.

Yours,

The FuturesTechs Team

If you came to see us at the World Money Show the other week then this is the moment you’ve been waiting for!

We are pleased to announce the winner of our “Witch Way for the FTSE” competition is Lukhvinder Binning, who guessed at 5143. Well done Sir!

Special mention really should go to O Y Tsang who plumbed for 5142, you will receive a copy of Clive’s book along with 9 others who were there or there abouts. It could not have been closer, so well done to all of you, especially considering how bearish things were looking on the Friday afternoon of the show!

Winners will be contacted over the coming days as we need your address to send you your prize!

We hope you will all take advantage of the free trial of our service, and realise the benefit of using Technical Analysis like ours as part of your daily trading routine.

Have a good week.

Whether you are Spread Betting, trading CFD’s, or trading DMA Futures, you need an edge.

Trading is tough, and managing your emotions is one of the toughest things you will have to learn in order to make a success of trading for a living.

The human brain is wired up all wrong for trading, in fact.

By nature we will take a profit too early (GREED kicks in and we snaffle up the winnings on the table), whereas if a trade goes into the red we won’t get out. Instead we’ll start to cross our fingers and hope that it comes back. As the trade goes further into the red pride gets in the way even more, and we allow the situation to get even worse. We FEAR booking a loss, and seeing that loss crystallise on our account, so we sit tight even more (or even worse we add to the losing position), waiting for it to come back (actually HOPING it will come back), except it probably won’t.

“The first cut is the cheapest” is a phrase commonly used by Professional Traders. When I go into my professional clients’ trading rooms I see stickers on traders’ screens with phrases like “get out of bad trades” and “run the winners”.

To become a successful trader you need to rewire your brain almost, and teach yourself to have the DISCIPLINE to get out of bad trades early on, and run the good trades as long as possible.

How can you do this? By using the charts.

You can use Technical Analysis to:

• Trade in the direction of the trend.
• Look for buying or selling opportunities
• Set clear targets and stops, preferably with a decent risk/reward (ie put on trades knowing where you’re going to get out, and knowing that the possible loss will always be much less than the potential profit)
• Trade at the important technical levels, and not in “no mans land”.

All of this will help you to manage your emotions. Only the very best traders in the world can ELIMINATE emotion. Most of us will have to content ourselves with finding a way of REDUCING the emotional side of things in order to help us make better trading decisions.

If you’re a novice at trading and/or technical analysis you will need some help with this, and FuturesTechs can provide you with the levels to trade around, as well as offering market leading guidance and analysis on a daily basis.

Professional Traders have been using our service for years as an essential part of their daily routine.

YOU now have the chance to enjoy the same advice on a daily basis.

Click here to subscribe (your maximum commitment only has to be 1 month, or £57.50)

Or if you’ve never seen our service before, click here to request a no obligation Free Trial.

Have a good week,

Yours,

The FuturesTechs Team

Clive has recently started a weekly slot on CNBC, where he’ll be explaining concepts in technical analysis and reviewing the current state of play in the markets. Tune in on Thursdays from around 6:30am, or check our archives.

Here is today’s appearance, discussing Marabuzo lines in the context of what’s been happening recently with the FTSE, S&P 500, Bund and Brent.

The FTSE has been making some noises to the downside of late, finally coming to the party on our pullback skew.

Our regular readers will know that ever since we found resistance around 4500 over most of May we have been mooting the idea of a pullback. Will this take us back to or even through the March lows? You need to subscribe to FuturesTechs to have access to our views on questions like this. As a taster for those of you who, for some strange reason, don’t subscribe,  here’s today’s FTSE Futures commentary and chart.

To get this sort of thing every day you need to become a FuturesTechs member. We offer generous discounts for 6 or 12 month memberships. Click here to join up.

Clients are enjoying the extra levels we now provide on our levels sheets, which have padded out the offering for all asset classes; Commodities, leading UK Stocks, and Forex now enjoy extra coverage for FuturesTechs members.

Clive recently spoke at the SII “Risk Forum” on a pnel discussion on the outlook for the next 6-12 months. Again our clients had access to the slides for this presentation, giving bigger picture insight on the technical outlook for Equities, Commodities and Bonds.

Clive was recently asked to do an interview by Malcolm Prior, author of several best selling books on Spread Betting. Malcolm published this interview on his website, Spread Betting Central. Click here to read this.

We are also considering rolling out Twitter updates for FuturesTechs members so they can get updates on anything new, either in the markets, or on the website. Please let us know your thoughts on this by clicking here.

We spent Friday at the IX Investor show where there were many people that were looking into the idea of trading the markets using Spread Betting.

A question that often comes up is what to actually trade, when it comes to Indices like the FTSE and the Dow, because on most Spread betting platforms there are several choices of product.

The FTSE 100 Index (aka “the Footsie”)  tracks the country’s top 100 companies. As many of you may be aware this list changes depending on who’s doing well and who isn’t. This week Alliance and Leicester, Persimmon, Tate and Lyle and Home Retail Group all fell out of the FTSE 100. This is a reflection on how tough Banks, House Builders, Retailers and Food companies (respectively) are doing it right now.

So who replaced them? Fine British names like Petrofac and Ferrexpo joined Drax Power and Invensys.

Petro-who? I think I know what it does based on the name; and it sounds like it likes Oil at £139 a barrel! Petrofec is an Oil service company; a truly worldwide operation.

Ferrexpo is a Ukrainian mining company.

The FTSE 100 reads like a who’s who of international powerhouses these days, whereas 10 or 20 years ago it read like a who’s who of the British High Street.

Now here’s one thing to think about while we ponder the make-up of the Index: It always champions the strong and weeds out the weak.  If a company performs badly, or if they are in a struggling sector,  they can fall out of the Index.

It’s the mining companies that have been the stellar performers in recent years, and the FTSE is now chocker-block with them.  As the Banking Stocks continue to fall like lead balloons their effect on the overall index decreases. So what you’re trading when you buy and sell the FTSE 100 is very different to what you were trading even a couple of years ago.

But back to our initial concern: The different products on offer on the Spread Betters platforms.

Most firms seem to offer at least two choices, the main two being a rolling “Cash” product or the “Quarterly/Forward” contract.

The rolling/cash merely tracks the underlying Index and settles against where that finishes each night.

The “Quarterly” or “Forward”  is based on the FTSE 100 Futures and is, in my humble opinion, the best one to trade, especially if you want to use our daily reports!  We write our reports on the Futures contract, currently for expiry in September (it trades for delivery in September, December, March and June, by the way), and this is what most Spread Bet firms will be referencing their quotes from.

If you want to trade the daily rolling contracts you  would need to work out the difference between it and the Futures before you can make firm use of our levels. The Futures should trade at a premium to the underlying, and at the moment in the FTSE that’s about 28 points.

If you have any further questions feel free to contact us via the button in the Member’s Area. We always aim to help our Members get the most out of the service.

Happy trading.

Cheers,

Clive.