The last few days have seen some big swings either way in Equity markets.
“Where next?” I hear you ask! Our chief market analyst Clive Lambert was on CNBC last night trying to pick the bones out of this price action, looking at the S&P 500 Futures, FTSE Futures, and suggesting Fresnillo as a Stock to buy.
See it on our media page by clicking here.
For today’s Forex “Lunch” Report we looked at the Dollar Index . As well as covering 4 major FX Crosses every morning we also send out a lunchtime update on anything that’s of interest in FX Land!
Below (click on the picture to get a full size version!) is today’s chart for the Dollar Index, showing reasons to think we may be heading back lower again.
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This morning’s reports on Silver and the FTSE would have reaped dividends for our clients, for different reasons.
Here’s the text of the FTSE Futures report:
We have posted the “all sessions” chart today because it’s actually a bit cleaner, and also shows what we’ve seen overnight; selling.
Selling to the 200 day MA as well, this well watched proxy sitting at 5771.5 today.
Yesterday’s low was 5827 in day session trade so this is a bold resistance above, and if the bulls don’t quickly retake this mark we will likely break through 5771.5 and head to 5615.5 then 5584.
If the bulls can dust themselves down from this weak open and get us back through 5816 and 5827 we then need to retake 5869.5 then fill the gap to 5912.
My gut tells me this weak open is a buying opportunity. The chart tells me otherwise…
Nice “gut feeling”!
Our Silver commentary was a bit more “nailed on”, and since we sent it out first thing this morning in the UK it traded up to 37.330 (as we tuck into our lunch in the UK, awaiting the open in the US):
Lunchtime (in the UK!) Update: We now have day session gap support at 36.400, protected by the broken resistance at 37.020, the latter having done a job in the last hour or so “on the retest”.
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Last week we posted a Blog about the potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming in the FTSE Futures. Things got interesting with respect to this yesterday, which was the crux of our morning report, reproduced below.
The fact that we’re not breaking this line PROPERLY does suggest the market’s ambilvalence is set to continue.
Towards the European close yesterday we were selling off, and we’d got through 5858, the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern that we’ve been watching of late. So on the “Day only” chart that we prefer, as above, we have a slight closing break of this Neckline, and a sell signal.
Except we’re called 50 higher this morning and this will instantly tell us that the sell signal is a false one.
It looks like the market is happy in it’s current moribund range-bound confused stupor, and we’ve got to put up with this situation for a bit longer.
We’re not getting any firm signals at the moment, then, and this counts for the Individual stocks as well, making our (and your) job a rather tough one.
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Below is the Comment and Chart from today’s FuturesTechs report. As well as this we provide Support and Resistance levels from our own analysis, as well as “Automated” levels referencing Market Profile, Pivot Points and Moving Averages.
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From yesterday: “Backing either camp is proving difficult in this volatile environment so our Skew turns neutral’
Sideways consolidation at multi month highs remains the story, albeit in a volatile environment. The dip below the previous days low found buyers at 1328.75 who rallied the market up to 1348.75, the previous breakdown level, on good volume.
Yesterdays low validates an up trend line from the low on the 14th March. Today this trend line provides support at 1330.50. Yesterdays downside rejection in conjunction with the validation of the up trend line means our Skew switches to tentatively bullish above 1330.50.
We have sent an extra report to our customers this morning, outlining the POTENTIAL sell signal that’s looming in the FTSE Futures. Here is the text and accompanying chart:
We have a potential “Head and Shoulders” pattern forming in the FTSE, although the sell signal has not been given yet.
The sell signal comes if we break the “Neckline” which is at 5851, and probably on a closing basis as well (although a “clean” break on high volume would convince me enough to take the signal “intra-day”).
The target, using the traditional measuring technique for this pattern, would be 5600.
Of course this also comes off the back of the recent failure at 6095, which was very similar to the February high/failure (6086.5). The “Double Top” sell signal from this situation would only be triggered on a move through 5584.5, so a long way off yet….
5851 is on the radar, however, so “Watch this space!”
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Here is a segment from today’s Brent Crude Technical Analysis report from FuturesTechs. We gave clients a preemptive “call” prior to last week’s sell off, and this morning’s price action, a failure at 118.37, could be the start of the next leg lower.
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Getting above 115.62 was good news for the bulls and we are now approaching a couple of big hurdles to the upside in the shape of 118.37 and 119.03. 118.37 is the 61.8% retrace of the move from the highs, and if this is the start of a bear move we really need to see the market fail here. 119.03 is the level that triggered a sell signal when it broke, and boy did we get a reaction when that happened last week!
Above these two there’s little to stop us from getting back up to the recent highs. However a failure at these levels followed by weakness through 116.15 gives the bears something to shout about once more.
Below is a sample of a note we sent to our “Premium” clients today; those clients who receive our Trade Recommendations service covering Individual UK Stocks. We’ve gone a bit quiet on this front of late as we await some clarity from the markets. In fact it’s been one of the most frustrating periods I can remember on this front! This frustration may show in what we put out. If you are trading or Broking CFDs on UK Equities and required Technical Analysis to aid your decisions or offer ideas please let us know (clikc the link below) and we’ll set you up with a Free Trial.
http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/
So to today’s note:
If you’ve been wondering why we’ve been so quiet of late it’s because we’re doing lots of head scratching when looking at the charts right now. The Equity markets have been a very fraught hunting ground of late!
So with an apology for lack of recent recommendations here’s proof that we’re not just sitting around doing nothing: A list of every FTSE Stock with a line (sometime just a word!) to say what I’m seeing and why we’ve not got a conviction trade on!
AAL - Looks heavy, but is holding it’s 200 day MA (2950) and previous support in the low 29’s. Scope to 2490 if it breaks
ABF - Very rangy feel to the chart in the short term. Bigger picture suggest scope for weakness to 960 or even 920.
ADM - Hasn’t done anything since September
AGK - Could be worth buying, looking for a hold above 1700
AMEC - Hasn’t done anything since November
ARM - Probably worth buying, but Reward/Risk isn’t right
ANTO - Looks bearish, but downside could be restricted to 1208
AU - Going sideways - No trade here
AV - Going sideways - No trade here
AZN - 200 day MA at 3095 might weigh. 3145 and 3175 also resistance
BAE - Been going sideways since October 2008!!
BARC - Breaking support at 277.50, but next support is 261, then 256, then 253. Too many supports below for a decent short risk/reward wise
BATS - Bullish, should hold 2645
BG - Broke support at 1400 last week but came roaring back. Gap above at 1498 is a worry for the bulls though.
BLND - Slow, steady riser. Good one to hold, but buying at these levels?
BLT - Left an “Island Reversal” back in April, when we shorted it. Scratched the trade on the subsequent high. Doh!
etc etc!!
This is the hot topic of the moment, with massive moves seen in recent days. Clive appeared on CNBC on April 27th talking about the “Long Legged Doji” reversal that we’d seen on the 25th, and how this might be a “top in place” if we subsequently broke $41. You can check this out on our “Media” page here: http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/media.html
Below is today’s Commentary to our clients, which makes interesting reading:
From yesterday: “So we look good for further weakness in the short term targeting 37.565 next. We could even head back to 34.000, the 38.2% retrace of the rally since October 2008’s low of 8.40!!”
Erm…. Wow!!!
34.000 target hit, give or take the odd quarter of a dollar! What now?
Dip buyers should be buying NOW, looking for $34 to hold, as this is such a big Fibonacci level, but a safer trade would be to wait for a move back through 37.720 as this is our first bold resistance. Even then I would only “call” a move to 40.100, where the sellers could return.
Keep a tight stop on any long trades though, because below $34 we’d look for further liquidation similar to recent sessions, targeting 31.275 next, then 29.110.
Weekly Chart:
Things are getting interesting in the Oil markets, with signs of the market topping out. Our thoughts on the Brent contract are reproduced in this week’s Investors Chronicle, but there is something worth noting in the WTI as well, as per below, our commentary from this morning:
J Welles Wilder, one of the brightest minds in TA in my lifetime, and the guy who came up with indicators such as RSI, DMI and Parabolic SAR, suggests in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” (published in 1978, so not that “new”!) that you can get a definitive signal when Divergences occur, by following his “Failure Swing” methodology. RSI topped out (with a reading of 76) on April 8th, when the price chart topped out at 113.46. We have since made a new high for price with a 114.83 print on May 2nd.
RSI topped out at 67.70 on that day (a lower high on the Indicator, a higher high on the price chart, or a “Bearish Divergence” as technicians call it). The low (on the RSI reading) between these two highs was 53, on April 12th. We broke below here yesterday, which gives a “Top Failure Swing” sell signal. These signals are usually pretty timely and robust.
We also broke support at 109.95 yesterday, which moved us “into the red” as far as our SkewBar is concerned.
Please go to http://www.futurestechs.co.uk/professional_trial/ to request a free trial of our service to see if it can aid your trading decisions.