FuturesTechs Blog

I have been on CNBC this morning talking about the outlook for the FTSE and Eurostoxx after a big week last week.The link for the interview is on our “Media” page here.

The crux of the comment was that the FTSE Futures broke higher to new territory for the year last Thursday, getting above it’s Arpil high at 5796.5. The big question when you get this sort of news driven breakout news is whether it’s sustainable, or whether you should “buy the rumour, sell the news”. In other words are we going to fall over as swiftly as we’ve broken higher? Friday’s price action, I think, offered a clue. We had a big support level at 5822 and it held firm. This suggests to me that the bulls are in charge, and hot to trot.

The next big resistance level above is 6396, the May 2008 high.

The Eurostoxx 50 Future is a different story and still has a few big resistance levels to see off, as I mentioned on CNBC.

Another market making positive noises is Oil, and Brent Crude is now breaking higher, although it has a big level to see off above at 89.58, so we’ll keep a close eye on that situation.

Gold is a hot story and has reached psychologically important resistance at 1400. We aren’t that worried by this level but have a target above that we’re aiming for.

Silver is a standout, and we’re bullish on this one while it’s above $25, and are advising our clients to buy dips to support while we’re holding firm at these levels.

Finally something for the Fixed Income mob. The Bund saw a decent turnaround last week and is back above 130.00. It now looks good to head back to it’s all time high up at 133.26.

Our clients receive reports every day on all of these markets and many more. We are happy to offer a free trial upon request, so please click here to get this set up.

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Have a good week,

Cheers,

Clive.

PS. I’ve just joined LinkedIn, so look me up if you want to “connect”!

It was interesting stuff as the bulls had a look at the August high before turning tail and letting this drift back a level.

The high was exactly at 2849 (we had suggested thinking in terms of a 2842 - 2849 resistance region after the 2842 high on Wednesday).

Stochastics have reached the overbought region and we’re glad to stay bullish here for the moment. But our tight stop at 2801 does seem well-advised given the strength of this latest confirmation of resistance. Note that there are “Evening Star” possibilities if this closes below Wednesday’s nearby Marabuzo line at 2796. We’ll continue to back the bulls at the current levels.

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Below are Support (S1 to S7) and Resistance (R1 to R7) levels. On our daily Technical Analysis reports we also include a chart, “Automated” levels including Pivot Points, Market Profile levels and popular Moving Averages, as well as our unique “SkewBar”, giving you an instant snapshort of the current short term trend.

Our daily analysis is read by Prop traders, Brokers and Fund Managers. Please feel free to request a Free Trial of our service.

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R7  - 2956

R6  - 2913

R5  - 2895

R4  - 2876

R3  - 2864

R2 - 2849

R1  - 2835

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S1  - 2813

S2 - 2796-2801

S3  - 2786

S4  - 2770

S5  - 2742

S6  - 2733

S7  - 2710

A few days back we said: “Dips are being bought, the bulls are in charge, and we’re not going to be caught batting against such a solid trend. Oh no!”

The market is in a rampant mood now, and put on stellar gains yesterday, trading up to then through my 1340 target (we’ve been talking about this as a target all year!).

We busted through the channel top line, RSI is overbought (the highest reading since 2005 in fact), and everything looks like it’s getting a little bit carried away. We are aware of this, and aware that sometimes this is the sort of thing that happens at a top. But that doesn’t mean we’re “calling” a top, because we can still see further upside in these sort of conditions.

If we break below 1328.2 things could start to unravel pretty quickly as I think there is now a fair bit of “speculative froth” appearing on the surface now.

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Below are Support (S1 to S7) and Resistance (R1 to R7) levels. On our daily reports we also include a chart, “Automated” levels including Pivot Points, Market Profile levels and popular Moving Averages, as well as our unique “SkewBar”, giving you an instant snapshort of the current short term trend.

Our daily analysis is read by Prop traders, Brokers and Fund Managers. Please feel free to request a Free Trial of our service.

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R7  - 1425

R6  - 1410

R5  - 1404

R4  - 1400

R3  - 1379.4

R2  - 1373.4

R1  - 1350

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S1  - 1345.7

S2  - 1342.9

S3  - 1333.8

S4  - 1328.2

S5  - 1324.8

S6  - 1319.8

S7  - 1313.3

We’ve been asking 1131.50 to do a job as support and in the main it’s obliged.

The couple of times we haven’t held this level, yesterday being one, we’ve got down to 1127 before bouncing neatly.

We get the hint. We’ll be bulls above 1127, moving our green SkewBar area down to here.

But the market has been going sideways for a while now, and we want to see a move through 1153.50 sooner rather than later please.

We can then look for 1174.75, then 1200, then 1216.75, the latter being the YTD high from late April.

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Below are Support (S1 to S7) and Resistance (R1 to R7) levels. On our daily reports we also include a chart, and our unique “SkewBar” giving you an instant snapshort of the current short term trend.

Our daily analysis is read by Prop traders, Brokers and Fund Managers. Please request a Free Trial of our service if you wish.

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R7  - 1174.75

R6  - 1166.25

R5  - 1159.50

R4  - 1153.50

R3  - 1146.50

R2  - 1144

R1  - 1139.75

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S1  - 1137

S2  - 1132.75

S3  - 1127

S4  - 1121.25

S5  - 1117.25

S6  - 1114.75

S7  - 1105.75

After a strong session on Thursday that saw us back into positive territory we had a weak day on Friday, but we held above the 130.67 level that has now become our reference point to stay with the bulls.

So this looks like a buying opportunity in a market that is embarking on a resumption of an uptrend, a market that has just seen a pullback within the uptrend, and a market that should now be thinking about retesting the highs at 133.26.

If 130.65 fails to hold the bulls have one more opportunity to salvage things, a gap at 130.25.

Below are the short term support and resistance levels, the important ones highlighted in bold type.

As well as the Bund we also cover the Bobl, Schatz, Euribor, Short Sterling, US 10 Year Notes and 3 month Eurodollars, offering a comprehensive coverage for Futures days traders. Please ask us for a free trial to see if we can complement your current daily routine.

The bears had the better of things yesterday as we sold off from 1134.50 to 1117.50 in European trade. When the day session kicked into life we caught a bid for a while, trading up to 1132.25 before a Shooting Star on many of the shorter term charts (15, 30 and 60 minute) put the kybosh on the bulls fun and gave us a reversal that saw us back 1117.

1117 was a bold support, and is at S2 today as we continue to hold above here. I have now made it my “trend change” level and the level that signals a down-leg in the making.

There are other bold supports to see off if/when 1117 is breached though. 1113.50 is the widely watched (but much maligned by me) 200 day moving average. 1103.50 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September rally.

R7        1150.50
R6        1147.50
R5        1144
R4        1140.25
R3        1134.50
R2        1132.25
R1        1126.75

S1        1121
S2        1117
S3        1113.50
S4        1109
S5        1103.50
S6        1098.25
S7       1086.25

For our full report, including Automated levels, Chart, and our unique “SkewBar”, clearly defining the current trend, please ask for a Free Trial using the buttons above.

September 22nd 2010 Gold Futures Commentary for FuturesTechs customers:

We got bullish of Gold on August 9th when it broke above 1200. We had 1266.5 as a target from that moment. This target was reached on September 14th, and has been exceeded since. Over this time we’ve also introduced 1291 into the picture as the next target once 1266.5 was seen off.

This next target was reached yesterday as the market rallied strongly on the Fed. We have printed 1293.5 in overnight trade, and there doesn’t appear to be any let-up in this move.

We have also mentioned 1340 as a target to the upside using Elliott Wave/Fibonacci extension analysis. So we’ll look for 1340 now, and we’ll continue to ask that 1266.5 and/or 1259.2 hold firm as support on any pullbacks.

Don’t fight a trend like this!!!!
Chart Levels

R7        1375
R6        1350
R5        1340
R4        1325
R3        1310
R2        1300
R1        1293.5

S1        1288
S2        1280.4
S3        1276.5
S4        1272
S5        1266.5
S6        1259.2
S7        1251.9

For our full report, including Automated levels, Chart, and our unique “SkewBar”, clearly defining the current trend, please ask for a Free Trial using the buttons above.

In what may become a weekly feature of the blog, here is a summary of our coverage of the FTSE futures for the week 28th June - 2nd July.

Monday, 28th June

We said:

“The bigger picture clears things up a bit. On the line chart plotting daily closes we are shaping up to give a big “Head and Shoulder” sell signal if we saw a close below 4966… Hence we are siding with the bears, and looking for a test of these key supports below”

What happened:

We got the sixth red candle in a row with the market failing short of R1 (through not reaching 4966).

Tuesday, 29th June

We said:

“…it looks increasingly like we’re going to retest 4970, then 4883.5, then 4801… 4897.5 is “the big one” as far as the longer term skew is concerned.”

What happened:

The Futures closed at 4862.5

Wednesday, 30th June

We said:

“We think a break of 4897.5 (already done) and 4852.5 (not yet done) will trigger further selling, but we are tempering our targets to 4620, or at worst 4342.

What happened:

There was a low at 4811 and a close at 4814.

Thursday, 1st July

We said:

“Unless we get back above 4851.5 and 4897 a bit sharpish things could deteriorate very quickly, and we could be in for a couple of weeks dominated by bears”

What happened:

The market failed at 4858 and sold down to 4757.

Friday, 2nd July

We said:

….we’re still below the Neckline of our Head and Shoulders pattern, and unless today’s US employment numbers can craft us a close above 4850 we’re going to get a close that doesn’t look good from a chart point of view.”

What happened:

With the jobs data it spiked briefly up to a high at 4852.5. As of 14:45 the market is threatening to test this level again….

Our clients are short the miners and banks - are you?

Over the last few weeks our viewing of the Technical Analysis charts has seen us increasing our bearish slant on the FTSE, mainly citing Financials and Miners as the sectors looking most vulnerable.

Last week we issued short trade recommendations in BHP Billition at 2125, Xstrata at 1198, Barclays at 365 and the FTSE Index at 5632.

Incidentally some of our best results in April were trades in the Finance Sectors, where we were long. We are not just banging one drum. We use Technical Analysis to tell us which way the market’s heading, and we issue our trades accordingly.

We’re still running the short trades mentioned above, as are many of our clients who follow our service. In situations where trades start to make good money we cover half the position, usually for a 5-8% profit, then run the balance by adjusting stops and targets, allowing Technical Analysis to manage trades for maximum profit potential.

Our daily reports have been increasingly warning of a pullback and our next target for the FTSE is 5340.

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