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FTSE to 1737? – Eurozone Woes, WD Gann, and a bit of a rant!!

So will it all get sorted this week? Can we enjoy Christmas safe in the knowledge that Merkel and Sarkozy have made good the Eurozone crisis, and that 2012 won’t be an annus horribilis for all of us?

If, like me, you read the Sunday Times yesterday you must have (like me!) struggled to get out of bed this morning, because what’s the point??!! Goodness me, I’ve never been so depressed on a Sunday. Well, not since West Ham got relegated last.

But get up this morning I did, as the loyal customers of FuturesTechs expect their daily slug of chart talk.

Another reason to want to stay in bed today is the busy week I had last week, which included 3 days “up north” visiting a chap called Fred Stafford who runs a company called Gann Management Ltd. Their website is www.gann.co.uk. Fred is one of the country’s most experienced (and I’ll also now say most vociferous and interesting) exponents of the work of WD Gann, the legendary Investor and Technician from the early part of the last century. Gann’s name will live long in the annals of TA as a “founding father” of modern day Technical Analysis along with Charles Dow and RN Elliott.

Fred’s analysts suggests that the market is due a big drop, and he talked about a target for the FTSE of 1737 (yes, you read that right, 1737). This seems like one of those “crazy” calls that I often say are ridiculous, let alone irresponsible. Until I read the Sunday Times, that is, then it all seems to make sense.

But I’ve done a bit more reading this week as well. I am a keen reader of books on Technical Analysis and am becoming increasingly interested in it’s history. The Society of Technical Analysts store a huge number of books at the Barbican Library in London for their members use, and I drop by there whenever I have a spare hour or two in the City. Last week I had such a window so headed to the Barbican and straight for the Gann books. Below is an excerpt from “45 Years in Wall Street”, one of the books I found there. It was referring to the crash of the 1930’s.

“Every time stocks made bottom, the newspapers, government officials and economist said it was the last bottom, but stocks went down, down down… They went lower than anybody dreamed they could go. People believed that the Government, by buying cotton, wheat and loaning money, could stop the depression, but once a cycle is up and prices are due to decline, nothing can stop them until it has run it’s course”.

I’ve long said that the best way to resolve a crisis is to “let it run it’s course” and that whatever the politicians of the world attempt, it’s not going to stop it. I always try my best to avoid making “big” calls, especially about governments and policy and the like (funny-mentals, as I call it) but it seems that my “views” are pretty well aligned with Fred’s and his Mentor, WD Gann (and David Smith at the Sunday Times, I guess!!!).

Rant Over!! Have a good week!!

Cheers, Clive.